我国粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力评价

EVALUATION OF COMPREHENSIVE GRAIN PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN MAIN GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力评价综合指数熵值法

Key words:  main grain producing area  comprehensive grain production capacity  evaluate  comprehensive indicator  entropy method

摘要:

［目的］通过粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力评价，认清粮食主产区粮食生产的优势、劣势和存在的问题，对保护和提高粮食综合生产能力，保障国家粮食安全意义重大。［方法］从农业生产系统的角度，构建了一套包括粮食生产的资源禀赋水平、物质装备水平、粮食产出能力、政策支持水平和可持续发展能力5个方面14项具体指标的粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力评价指标体系，应用熵值法和统计数据，对2004—2015年我国13个粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力进行评价及排序。［结果］（1）与非主产区比较， 12年间，各粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力均呈现上升的趋势。物质装备水平、资源禀赋水平和粮食产出能力远远高于非粮食主产区。从可持续发展能力来看，主产区和非主产区从2004年以来呈下降趋势，非主产区降低得更快。（2）与全国平均水平比较， 2004—2015年间，主产区及全国的资源禀赋水平、物质装备水平、粮食产出能力、政策支持水平4个一级指标总体上呈上升趋势，可持续发展能力整体呈下降的趋势，主产区5个一级指标明显高于全国平均水平。（3）各主产区粮食综合生产能力的排序呈现动态的变化：粮食综合生产能力较高且保持稳定的有3个省； 粮食综合生产能力排名提高较快的有3个省； 排名下降较快的有2个省。在此基础上，结合粮食生产的现状，提出保护和提高粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力的对策建议。［结论］2004年以来，各粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力总体上逐年提高。其发展水平远远高于非粮食主产区和全国平均水平。但是可持续发展能力则呈下降趋势。12年间，各粮食主产区粮食综合生产能力的排序呈现动态的变化。因此，要加强粮食生产基础设施建设，挖掘土地和技术等潜力，而且粮食生产要向低碳化转型。

Abstract:

Through the evaluation of comprehensive grain production capacity in main grain producing areas, the advantages, disadvantages, and problems of grain production in the main grain producing areas will be clearly identified, which is of great significance for protecting and improving the comprehensive grain production capacity and ensuring the national food security. From the perspective of agricultural production system, a set of evaluation index system for the comprehensive grain production capacity in main grain producing areas was set up, including 14 key indicators in five aspects of the resource level of grain production, material and equipment level, grain output capacity, policy support level and sustainable development capacity. The entropy method and statistical data were used to evaluate and rank the comprehensive grain production capacity of 13 main grain producing areas in China from 2004 to 2015. The results showed that (1) Compared with the non main producing areas, over the 12 years, the comprehensive grain production capacity of main grain producing areas showed an upward trend. The level of material equipment, resource endowments, and the capacity for grain output were much higher than those in non grain producing areas. From the standpoint of sustainable development capacity, the main producing areas and non main producing areas had shown a downward trend since 2004, and the non main producing areas had decreased faster. (2) Compared with the national average level, the 4 primary indicators of the main producing areas and the country′s resource endowments, material and equipment level, grain output capacity, and policy support level showed an overall upward trend from 2004 to 2015, while the sustainable development capacity showed an overall downward trend. The 5 primary indicators of the main producing areas were obviously higher than the national average. (3) The ranking of the comprehensive grain production capacity of the main producing areas showed a dynamic change: there were 3 provinces that had higher comprehensive grain production capacity and remained stable; there were 3 provinces that had a rapid increase in the overall grain production capacity ranking; there were 2 provinces that decreased fast. Based on this, combined with the current situation of grain production, the countermeasure to protect and improve the comprehensive grain production capacity in main grain producing areas was proposed. Since 2004, the overall grain production capacity of main grain producing areas had generally increased year by year. Its level of development was far higher than that of non main grain producing areas and the national average. However, the sustainable development capacity showed a downward trend. Over the 12 years, the order of comprehensive grain production capacity in the main grain producing areas showed dynamic changes. Therefore, we must strengthen the construction of food production infrastructure, exploit potentials in land and technology, and transform food production to low carbon.