新疆棉区生产空间格局演化及驱动因素分析

SPATIO TEMPORAL PATTERN AND ITS DRIVING FACDTORS OF COTTON PRODUCTION IN XINJIANG

关键词:  棉花生产时空格局空间自相关多元线性回归模型新疆

Key words:  cotton production  spatial temporal pattern  spatial auto correlation  multiple linear regression model  Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］利用2000—2015年农业生产统计数据，分析新疆棉区生产空间格局及其主要驱动因素。［方法］采用空间自相关、多元线性回归模型。［结果］（1）棉花生产空间差异显著，呈南北两侧向天山南北递增趋势，在业已形成的天山北坡和南坡主产区格局下，“南增北减”趋势增强； （2）植棉区存在空间集聚效应，在时序上表现出持续的稳定性，高值聚集区集中分布于南疆区域，低值聚集区空间范围显著缩小； （3）多元线性回归模型结果显示，人均耕地面积、农机总动力、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、非农就业机会、人均粮食产量、与小麦产值比、受灾面积、单产水平、目标价格改革、临时收储政策等对棉花生产均有显著影响，通过不同的作用机理形成当前棉花生产空间格局。［结论］建议发展标准化规模经营，加强全程机械化技术推广应用，完善农业保险及综合性补贴，为棉花生产布局优化和结构调整提供决策依据。

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the spatial temporal pattern and driving factors of cotton production in Xinjiang province, by using agricultural production statistic data from 2000 to 2015. The methods of spatial auto correlation and multiple linear regression model were mainly implemented in this study. The results showed that（1）Spatial pattern of cotton production significant changed, which showed the increasing trend to northern and southern slopes of Tianshan, the main cotton producing areas had been formed in northern and southern slopes of Tianshan, the trend of "increase in south and decrease in north" was significant;（2）The cotton production offered certain spatial clustering effect, continuous stability and high value clusters were mainly distributed in south Xinjiang, while low value clusters were been depleted significantly;（3）Multiple linear regression results indicated that: the factors such as per capita area of cultivated land, total power of agricultural machinery, consumption of chemical fertilizer(100% purity), effective irrigated area, non farming vocations, per capita output of grain crops, the output ratio between cotton and wheat, areas covered by natural disaster, output of cotton per hectare, the reform of target price and temporary purchase and storage policy were the main driving factors which influenced the spatial temporal pattern changes of cotton production. According to the results, the countermeasures such as develop standardized and scale production, strengthen the application of entire mechanization, improve agricultural insurance and comprehensive subsidy were put forward for the optimization and structural adjustment of cotton production.