基于多层次模型的甘肃秦巴山区农户生计多样化研究

THE STUDY ON THE FARMER′S LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION IN THE QIN BA MOUNTAIN AREA OF GANSU PROVINCE BASED ON HIERARCHICAL LINEAR MODEL

关键词:  农户生计生计多样化多层次模型影响因素甘肃秦巴山区

Key words:  farmers′ livelihood  livelihood diversification  hierarchical linear model  influencing factors  Qin ba mountain area of Gansu province

摘要:

［目的］针对生计多样化成为农村地区消除贫困的重要选择，对甘肃秦巴山区农户生计多样化及其影响因素进行研究，以期为提高农户生计的多样化水平的政策制定提供参考。［方法］文章通过运用参与式农村评价法对甘肃秦巴山区的385个村庄的1 200个农户进行实地调查的基础上，运用多层次模型，实证分析影响农户生计多样化的因素。［结果］(1)甘肃秦巴山区农户生计多样化指数越高，农户的平均收入就越高； 样本中有925%农户只有一种收入来源，且近1/2农户的生计多样化指数在01～05，总体上生计多样化水平较低。(2)生计多样化指数的1235%变异是由农户居住村庄的外部环境导致的。在不引入村庄层面的变量时，发现外出务工情况、家庭收入情况、家庭对教育的重视情况、耕地状况、园地状况、固定资产状况、退耕还林（草）对生计多样化有显著影响。(3)引入村庄层面的变量后，发现村庄的高程对外出务工情况，耕地状况影响显著，村庄的收入状况对教育的重视状况的正影响显著，村庄距最近乡镇的距离对教育的重视状况、家庭收入状况的反作用影响显著。［结论］需要进一步加强对农村劳动力种植养殖技能的培训； 加大对农业生产、农产品加工的资金与税收、金融政策等支持； 继续实施退耕还林（草）工程，加快生态移民进程等促进生计多样化水平提高的政策建议。

Abstract:

The livelihood diversification has become an important choice to eliminate poverty in rural areas. The purpose of this paper is to explore the farmers′ livelihood diversification and their influencing factors in the Qin ba mountain area of Gansu province, so as to provide reference for policy design for improving the diversification level of farmers′ livelihoods. This paper used the participatory rural appraisal method to survey the conditions of 1200 households in 385 villages in Qin ba mountain area of Gansu province. Based on the micro data sets, this paper designed the hierarchical linear model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of livelihood diversification. The main conclusions were drawn as follows: (I)The higher the livelihood diversification index of farmers in Qin ba mountain area of Gansu province, the higher the average income of farmers; The livelihood diversification index of 9.25% households in the sample had only one income resource, and nearly one half of farmers′ livelihood diversification index was located at 0.1 to 0.5, so it could be said that the overall level of livelihood diversification in Qin ba mountain areas of Gansu province was relatively low;(2)The 12.35% variation of livelihood diversity index in the sample was caused by the external environment of rural households, namely, the living villages. Without the introduction of village level variables, the analysis found that out migrant for work, family′s income, family′s emphasis on education, cultivated land, garden land conditions, the condition of fixed assets, returning farmland to forest (grass) all had the significant effects on the rural livelihood diversification.(3)When this paper introduced the village level variables, it was found that the elevation of the village had a significant impact on the situation of migrant workers and arable land. The income status of the villages had a positive effect on the importance of education. The distance between the village and the nearest township had a significant negative influence on the family′s emphasis on education and family′s income.Finally, this paper put forward that the government should further strengthen the training of rural labor cultivation and breeding skills, and continue to increase taxation and financial policy support for agricultural production and agricultural products processing, and continue to implement the project of returning farmland to forests (grass), and to speed up the process of ecological migration, so as to improve the level of livelihood diversification.