我国丘陵山区农机化水平影响因素及区划研究*——基于全国丘陵山区238个县（市）的调研数据

STUDY ON THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION AND REGIONAL DIVISION IN HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CHINA*——BASED ON 238 COUNTIES (CITIES) INVESTIGATIONS IN HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS

关键词:  丘陵山地农业机械化回归分析聚类分析区域划分

Key words:  hills and mountains  agricultural mechanization  regression analysis  cluster analysis  regional planning

摘要:

［目的］通过对全国丘陵山区县（市）与农机化有关的社会、经济和自然条件等因素进行调研所获取的238个有效样本进行分析，研究影响我国丘陵山区农机化水平的因素及其贡献，进而对我国丘陵山区进行区域划分。［方法］运用线性回归法对影响丘陵山区农机化水平的影响因素进行分析，进而对农机化水平产生显著影响的因素进行聚类分析。［结果］国内生产总值、农业劳动力数量对农机化水平产生极显著影响，耕地禀赋条件、务工工资、耕地规模、农机合作社数量和农机推广人员数量对农机化水平产生显著影响。对我国丘陵山区农机化水平呈正相关关系的因素有国内生产总值、务工工资、耕地规模、农机合作社数量，呈负相关的因素有耕地禀赋条件、农业劳动力数量、农机推广人员数量和农机化水平。［结论］我国可丘陵山区划分为中西、东南部地区，北部地区和东部沿海地区3大类地区。

Abstract:

Based on the data of 238 valid samples obtained by the survey of national hilly and mountainous counties (cities), factors related to agricultural mechanization including social, economic and natural conditions were analyzed to study the affecting factors and their contribution to the level of agricultural mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas of China, and to divide the regions in hilly areas. Linear regression and cluster analysis were used to analyze the affecting factors of the level of agricultural mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas, and then cluster analysis was done by factors which significantly influenced the level of agricultural mechanization. The results showed that the gross domestic product and the quantity of agricultural labor force have extremely significant impact on the level of agricultural mechanization (P<0.01). The conditions of farmland endowment, wages, arable land scale, number of agricultural machinery cooperatives and the number of agricultural mechanical technology spreading personnel had significant impact on the level of agricultural mechanization (P<0.05). Factors positively related to the level of agricultural mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas of China were the gross domestic product, wage, arable land scale and number of agricultural machinery cooperatives, while arable land scale, the quantity of agricultural labor force and the number of agricultural mechanization technology spreading personnel were negatively related to it. Hilly and mountainous areas of China could be classified into 3 major categories: mid west and southeast, northern and eastern coastal areas.