我国玉米生产空间布局变迁及其影响因素分析

ANALYSIS ON THE CHANGE OF MAIZE PRODUCTION SPATIAL LAYOUT AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS

关键词:  玉米种植布局变动趋势影响因素空间杜宾模型

Key words:  maize  planting layout  changing trend  influencing factors  Spatial Durbin Model

摘要:

［目的］玉米是我国重要的粮食作物之一，玉米空间布局的变化对国内玉米市场的供求价格及供需关系产生影响之外，并在更深层次对我国玉米产业的发展产生影响。［方法］立足空间计量经济学的研究理论，文章首先应用全局Moran′s I指数检验1997—2015年我国省域玉米种植面板数据的空间相关性，并进一步通过构建空间杜宾模型（SDM）实证分析我国玉米种植布局变化的影响因素。［结果］计量结果显示，我国玉米种植布局存在显著的空间正向相关性； 农户的以往决策、农业技术、农村基础水利设施、市场粮食价格指数对我国省域玉米种植面积扩大有正向影响，其中技术和政策的空间溢出效应显著； 各影响因素的局部性效应致使中国玉米种植布局发生变化。［结论］建议政府部门重视我国省域间玉米产业空间之间的联动性，出台差异化的玉米产业支持办法，稳定省域之间粮食的供求关系，切实做好跨区域粮食调配工作，实现我国粮食自给自足，保障粮食安全。

Abstract:

Maize is one of the most important grain crops in China. The change of spatial distribution of maize has an impact on the price of supply and demand and the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic maize market, it also has an impact on the development of maize industry in China. Based on the theory of spatial econometrics, this paper first used the global Moran′s I index to test the spatial correlation of provincial maize planting panel data in China from 1997 to 2015, and further analyzed the spatial analysis of China′s population by using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) influencing factors of maize planting layout change. The results show that there are significant spatial positive correlations in the layout of maize in China. Farmers′ previous decision making, agricultural technology, rural basic water conservancy facilities and market grain price index and the spatial spillover effect of technology and policy are significant. The local effect of each factor causes the change of corn planting in China. It is suggested that the government departments attach importance to the linkage between the inter regional corn industry space, introduce the different corn industry support measures, stabilize the grain supply and demand relationship among provinces, do a good job in cross regional food distribution work, to achieve China′s food self sufficiency to ensure food security.