中国与东南亚农产品贸易现状与潜力分析*——基于“一带一路”倡议

ANALYSIS ON THE STATUS QUO AND POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA UNDER THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

关键词:  一带一路东南亚国家农产品贸易出口优势增长潜力

Key words:  the Belt and Road Initiative  Southeast Asia  agricultural trade  export advantage  trade potential

摘要:

［目的］文章利用2007—2016年联合国贸易统计数据，从贸易总量、贸易结构等相关数据切入，研究“一带一路”倡议下，中国与东南亚11国①农产品贸易的现状，双边农产品的出口比较优势与贸易互补性以及潜在合作空间，挖掘中国与东南亚国家农产品贸易潜力，为双边农产品贸易的进一步拓展提出建议。［方法］采用显示性比较优势指数、贸易强度指数进行实证分析。［结果］“一带一路”倡议下，中国与东南亚农产品贸易关系更加紧密； “一带一路”倡议有效促进了中国农产品出口东南亚，改善了中国在与东南亚国家农产品贸易中的逆差地位。［结论］东南亚农产品出口优势整体强于中国，双方农产品出口优势存在较大差异，农产品贸易存在较强的互补性且具有一定的增长潜力。

Abstract:

This article used total trade volume, trade structure and other relevant data from 2007 to 2016 UN trade statistics data to study the current status of agricultural trade between China and 11 countries in Southeast Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative, then used the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index(RCA) and Trade Intensity Index(TII) for empirical analysis to study the export comparative advantage, trade complementarity and potential cooperation space of bilateral agricultural products, explore the potential of agricultural products trade between China and Southeast Asian countries and provide suggestions for further development of bilateral agricultural trade. It found that since the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, agricultural trade relations between China and Southeast Asia have become closer. The Belt and Road Initiative has effectively promoted the export of Chinese agricultural products to Southeast Asia, reduced China′s deficit in agricultural trade with Southeast Asian countries. Southeast Asian agricultural exports have stronger overall advantages than China. There are great differences in the export advantages of agricultural products between the two sides. Agricultural products trade has strong complementarity and certain growth potential.