基于多层次灰色方法的生态旅游发展潜力评价及实证研究

RESEARCH ON EVALUATION MODEL OF THE ECOTOURISM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND ITS EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MULTI LEVEL GREY EVALUATION METHOD

关键词:  生态旅游发展潜力评价多层次灰色方法变异系数法吉林省

Key words:  ecotourism  development potential evaluation  multi level grey evaluation method  coefficient variation method  Jilin province

摘要:

［目的］生态旅游作为可持续旅游的一种形式，已成为旅游学术研究与实践探索的热点，生态旅游发展潜力研究日益受到重视。文章以吉林省为研究对象，探讨生态旅游开发潜力的有关问题，以期为吉林省乃至我国生态旅游发展提供一定的理论与实践参考。［方法］从旅游资源、开发条件、客源市场、生态环境4个方面设计了生态旅游发展潜力评价指标体系，运用层次分析法与变异系数法相结合的主客观综合方法进行指标赋权，构建了基于多层次灰色模型的生态旅游发展潜力评价模型，并以吉林省8市1州为研究单位进行了实证分析。［结果］吉林省8市1州的生态旅游发展潜力综合得分介于3~4分之间，总体良好，但各市州之间也存在一定差异。［结论］根据评价结果，将吉林省生态旅游发展潜力划分为3个层级，即长春、延边州、吉林为一级生态旅游发展潜力区； 通化、白山、白城、松原等4个城市为二级生态旅游发展潜力区； 四平市、辽源市为三级生态旅游发展潜力区，并提出了吉林省生态旅游开发的思路和战略性对策。

Abstract:

Ecotourism as one of the patterns of sustainable development has become a hot spot of tourism academic research and practice exploration. The research on ecotourism development potential is getting more and more attention. Based on the research object of Jilin province, this study discussed the related problems of ecotourism development potential, so as to provide some references for the theory and practice of ecotourism development in Jilin province and China. This study designed an evaluation index system of ecotourism development potential from four aspects including tourism resources, development conditions, tourist market and ecological environment. And it used AHP （analytic hierarchy process）and CV（coefficient of variation method） to determine the index weight, and constructed the ecotourism development potential evaluation model based on the multi level grey model, which was then carried out in 8 cities and 1 autonomous prefecture in Jilin province as research units. The results show that the comprehensive scores of ecotourism development potential in eight cities and one autonomous prefecture of Jilin province are between 3 and 4 points, which are good in total, but there are also some differences between them. It can be divided into three levels: Changchun, Yanbian and Jilin as the Class I areas of ecotourism development potential. The four cities of Tonghua, Baishan, Baicheng and Songyuan are the Class II areas of ecotourism development potential. Siping and Liaoyuan are the Class III areas of ecotourism development potential. Based on the research results, this study points out the thought and strategic countermeasures of ecotourism development in Jilin province.