国家生态屏障区PESREn系统协调性研究*——以甘肃省为例

RESEARCH ON PESREN SYSTEM COORDINATION OF NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL BARRIER AREA*——TAKING GANSU PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  PESREn复合系统综合发展指数协调度协调发展度国家生态屏障

Key words:  PESREn composite system  comprehensive development index  coordinated degree  coordinated development degree  national ecological barrier area

摘要:

［目的］通过对国家重要生态屏障区甘肃省人口、经济、社会、资源和环境复合系统的定量测度，明确其系统协调程度及协调发展程度。［方法］通过建立人口、经济、社会、环境、资源复合系统协调性评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法与协调度模型，对2005—2015年甘肃省PESREn复合系统的综合发展指数、协调度及协调发展度进行测算。［结果］（1）甘肃省经济、社会综合发展指数快速上升，人口、资源综合发展指数缓慢上升，环境综合发展指数在波动中趋于下降，发展远远滞后于其他系统； （2）甘肃省复合系统的协调度2005年为0026 6， 2009年达到最高值0649 0，到2015年再次下降至0375 9； （3）甘肃省复合系统的协调发展度从2005年的0090 1调整至2015年的0528 1。［结论］在甘肃省发展过程中，环境系统是系统协调发展的短板； 从整体趋势上看，复合系统的协调度在波动中略有优化，已从严重失调调整至轻度失调； 复合系统的协调发展度持续优化， 2015年达到勉强协调； 认为甘肃省应加大培育战略性新兴产业，发展区域特色产业，大力推进各系统的深度协调发展； 构建和完善系统协调发展机制，树立生态环保理念，推进系统的可持续协调发展。

Abstract:

This research aims to measure the coordination degree and coordinated development degree of the population, economy, society, resources and environment composite system of Gansu province, an important national ecological barrier area through quantitative measurement. The research established the coordination evaluation index system by adopting the population, economy, society, resources and environment composite system. And by using the principal component analysis and coordination degree model, it calculated the comprehensive development index, coordination degree and coordinated development degree of the system from 2005 to 2015. The results showed that (1) The economic and social development index of Gansu had grown rapidly, while the population and resources comprehensive development index was quite slow. The comprehensive environmental development index tended to go down in fluctuation, and its growth lagged far behind the others; (2) Coordination degree of the composite system of Gansu province had grown from 0.0266 in 2005 to 0.6490 in 2009, which reached its peak, and dropped to 0.375 9 in 2015; (3) Coordinated development degree of the composite system of Gansu province had grown from 0.0901 to 0.5281 during 2005 to 2015. It can be concluded that the environmental system is its weak point for balanced development during the development process of Gansu province; the coordination degree of the composite system has grown slightly in fluctuation, and has shifted from severe imbalance to mild imbalance; the coordinated development degree of the composite system has been raised steadily and reached basic balance in 2015. It is believed that Gansu province should increase the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, develop regional characteristic industries, and vigorously promote the in depth coordinated development of various systems, build and improve the coordinated development mechanism, establish the concept of ecological environment protection, and promote the sustainable and coordinated development of the PESREn Composite System.