中国马铃薯生产区域布局的时空特征与驱动机制研究*——基于主产区的面板数据的分析

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIVING FACTORS OF PRODUCTION REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION FOR POTATO IN CHINA*——BASED ON THE PANEL DATA OF THE MAIN PRODUCTION AREAS

关键词:  马铃薯生产布局优势产区变迁驱动机制

Key words:  potato  regional distribution  main production area  change  driving factors

摘要:

［目的］基于1993—2015年中国马铃薯21个省区的数据，实证研究马铃薯生产区域布局的时空特征及其内在的驱动机制。［方法］从全国和5个马铃薯优势产区层面，运用生产规模指数分析马铃薯生产区域布局的时空特征，从自然环境、技术进步、经济效益、非农产业化水平、政府支持政策等方面厘清和探究马铃薯生产区域布局的驱动机制，并重点利用面板数据计量模型研究这些因素在全国以及5个马铃薯优势产区的影响的差异性和重要程度。［结果］中国马铃薯播种面积从1993年的308720万hm2增至2015年的551830万hm2，呈现迅速增长、下降与增长交替并存、平稳增长3个阶段； 中国马铃薯生产的地理集聚现象明显。一方面，马铃薯生产规模在不同省区出现更迭变动。另一方面，马铃薯生产区域进一步向优势区域集中，呈现出向西南和西北优势产区集中的特征。［结论］中国马铃薯生产区域布局是自然灾害、农业基础设施、技术进步、马铃薯与粮食生产净利润比值、非农产业水平和政府支持政策等因素共同作用的结果，其中自然灾害、农业基础设施、非农产业化水平、政府支持政策的影响更为显著，但由于区域差异，各因素在全国和不同马铃薯优势产区的影响程度有明显的差异性。

Abstract:

Based the twenty one main production areas of potato, this paper aims to measure the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors during the period of 1993-2015. From the national and five main production areas, this paper studied the spatial-temporal characteristics by using the production scale index, and then discussed the driving factors of potato production distribution from the natural environment, technological progress, economic revenue, non agricultural industrialization and policy support, finally estimated the effects and differences of driving factors by conducting the panel data model in the national and five main production areas. The results were showed as follows. First, Chinese potato production areas increased from 3 087.20 thousand hm2 in1993 to 5 518.30 thousand hm2 in 2015 which mainly experienced rapid growth, declining growth and growth alternation, and steady growth. Second, the geographical agglomeration of potato production was obvious in China. On the one hand, potato production scale directly changed in different provinces. On the other hand, the production areas of potato were concentrated in the advantage regions which showed clear characteristics of movement to southwest and northwest regions. Finally, the regional distribution of potato in China is the results of natural disasters, agricultural infrastructure, technological progress, economic revenue, non agricultural industrialization and policy support. The impacts of natural disasters, agricultural infrastructure, non agricultural industrialization and policy support are even more significant. However, it shows that the degrees of influence in different regions are obvious different because of regional differences.