禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

RESEARCH ON MARKET STATUS OF BROILER INDUSTRY UNDER AVIAN INFLUENZA CRISIS*——BASED ON INTERNET BIG DATA AND MS VAR MODEL

关键词:  禽流感舆情指数互联网大数据肉鸡产业 MS-VAR模型市场状态价格传导

Key words:  avian influenza sentiment index  internet big data  broiler chicken  MS VAR model  market status  price transmission

摘要:

［目的］为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。［方法］基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数，选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据，通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。［结果］2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态，肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁； 肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为465周和905周； 肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征； 肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性； 不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异； 肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。［结论］提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力，密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况，做好舆情引导，加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传，增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。

Abstract:

In order to effectively deal with the impact of avian influenza and maintain the stable and healthy development of the broiler industry. The index of avian influenza was structured based on the big data of the Internet. The paper analyzes the transition characteristics of broiler market status and the transmission relationship between the prices of the broiler industry chain under the avian influenza crisis through MS VAR model. The results showed that the market status of broiler industry could be divided into the crisis state and the normal state, and the broiler market was changed frequently under two market conditions since 2012. The average duration of crisis status and normal state of the market was 4.65 weeks and 9.05 weeks. There were obvious asymmetric characteristics in the transfer probability of broiler market. The correlation between the prices of industry chain under crisis state was less than which under normal state. There were differences in price transmission of broiler industry chain under different market conditions. The degree of instability increased significantly in the crisis state. The paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as strengthening the monitoring and handling capacity of avian influenza epidemic, paying close attention to the dynamic changes of public opinion on avian influenza, guiding public opinion, strengthening the publicity of scientific knowledge on avian influenza epidemic and enhancing public awareness of avian influenza.