黑龙江粮食产能及其影响因素研究

STUDY ON THE GRAIN PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS INFLUENCEING FACTORS IN HEILONGJIANG

关键词:  耕地质量粮食产能影响因素灰色系统动态关联度黑龙江

Key words:  cultivated land quality  grain production capacity  influence factors  dynamic relevance degree of grey system  Heilongjiang

摘要:

［目的］分析1985—2014年黑龙江省粮食综合生产能力变化，有助于总结影响粮食生产健康发展的因素指标，探究影响因素变化对该省粮食产能的影响方式。［方法］通过主成分分析法、因子分析法判断各影响因素的作用方向及影响程度，分析其影响机理，运用灰色系统理论对影响该省粮食生产的影响因素进行关联动态分析，量化粮食总产量与主要影响因素的关联度。［结果］（1）化肥施用量仍是近阶段粮食增产的主要推力，但过度使用化肥易造成难以挽回的生境影响，建议科学合理施肥； （2）农业机械总动力、农用柴油使用量对粮食生产有重要影响，即该省耕地面积广，人均耕地面积高，适宜机械化、规模化、产业化粮食生产； （3）农业劳动力比重与粮食生产呈较强负相关，建议合理规模经营，释放劳动力； （4）灌溉条件依然制约着黑龙江粮食的生产。［结论］为粮食产能健康释放，应正确引导农民使用化肥，规模化经营粮食生产，也可加强整治耕地灌溉条件。

Abstract:

Analysis on the change of comprehensive grain production capacity in Heilongjiang province from 1985 to 2014 will be helpful to summarize the factor indexes affecting the healthy development of grain production, and explore the influence mode of the influencing factor change on the grain production capacity in this province. The principal component analysis and factor analysis were used to determine the direction and extent of each influencing factor and then analyze its influencing mechanism. The grey system theory was used to analyze the influencing factors of grain production in this province, and quantify the correlation degree between the total grain output and the main influencing factors. The results were indicated as follows. The amount of chemical fertilizer was still the main thrust to increase grain production in recent years, but the overuse of chemical fertilizer was easy to cause irreversible habitat impact. It was suggested that scientific and rational fertilization could be applied. The total power of agricultural machinery and the use of agricultural diesel oil had an important impact on grain production. That is to say, the cultivated land area in this province was wide and the per capita cultivated land area was high, which was suitable for mechanized, large scale and industrialized grain production. The proportion of agricultural labor force was negatively correlated with grain production. It was suggested to operate on a reasonable scale management and release labor force. Irrigation conditions still restricted grain production in Heilongjiang province. Summarily, in order to healthy release grain production capacity, farmers should be correctly guided to use chemical fertilizers, manage grain production on a large scale, and improve irrigation conditions of cultivated land.