| 摘要: |
| ［目的］农业生产布局是农业各部门和生产项目在空间上的动态组合，是区域农业发展的重要内容。为对生产格局的形成过程进行深入探讨，提高农业生产布局调控的合理性和指导性。［方法］基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和GIS技术，构建了柑橘潜在种植分布与自然资源因子关系模型，利用存在概率确定出四川柑橘种植适宜区。构建了涉及自然、社会、经济等4组共14类阻力因子的生产布局阻力面，并运用最小累积阻力模型（MCR）对柑橘生产布局过程进行模拟。［结果］(1)四川省柑橘种植适宜性的主导自然资源因子为海拔、年日照时数、最热月均温、年均温、年降雨量、坡度、无霜期。(2)柑橘高适宜区面积约为422万hm2，中适宜区419万hm2、低适宜区440万hm2，大部分地区为不适宜区。(3)考虑到边际效益递减，四川柑橘生产布局边界应不越过宣汉县—通江县—南江县—巴州区—苍溪县—剑阁县—江油市—北川县—汶川县—宝兴县—荥经县—金口河区—马边县。可将扶持政策、产业资金、成果技术等要素优先投入一类布局区（阻力值0
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| 关键词: 最大熵模型最小累积阻力模型区域农业生产布局布局模拟柑橘 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:四川省软科学计划项目“四川贫困地区主要作物（经作）产业可持续发展科技问题与对策研究”（2018ZR0045）； 四川省财政创新能力提升工程“四川特色水果适宜性评价及布局优化研究”（2018QNJJ010） |
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| SIMULATION OF CITRUS PRODUCTION LAYOUT IN SICHUAN PROVINCE BASED ON MAXENT AND MCR |
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Lin Zhengyu1,2※, Chen Qiang1, Deng Liangji1, Li Xiao2, He Peng2, Tang Sha2
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1. College of Resources, Sichuan Agriculture University, Chengdu, Sichuan 611130, China;2. Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Science, Chengdu, Sichuan 610066, China
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| Abstract: |
| Agricultural production layout is the dynamic combination of agricultural departments and production projects in space, and it is an important part of regional agricultural development. This research aims to make a thorough discussion on the formation process of the production pattern, so as to improve the rationality and guidance of the regulation and control of the distribution of agricultural production. Based on Maximum Entropy Model（MaxEnt）and GIS, the relationship model of potential planting distribution and natural resource factor of citrus was constructed, and the citrus suitable area of Sichuan was determined by the probability of existence. Using 14 kinds of resistance factors from four aspects, such as nature, society and economy, the resistance surface of citrus production layout was constructed, and simulated the production process of citrus based on Minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR). The dominant natural resource factor for citrus planting in Sichuan province was elevation, annual sunshine duration, July average temperature, annual average temperature, annual rainfall, slope, and frost free period. The area of the high suitable was about 422×104hm2, middle suitable areas was about 419×104hm2 , low suitable areas was 440×104hm2, and most of the areas were not suitable. Considering the diminishing marginal benefit, the border of citrus production layout in Sichuan should not cross Xuanhan Tongjiang Nanjiang Bazhou Cangxi Jiange Jiangyou Beichuan Wenchuan Baoxing Yingjing Jinkouhe Mabian. The supporting policies, industrial funds, scientific and technological achievements and other factors should be put into the first layout area (Resistance value 0
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| Key words: Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt) Minimum Cumulative Resistance(MCR) regional agriculture production layout layout simulation citrus |
