基于主导因子的湖南省农业灾害风险评价

RISK ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL DISASTERS IN HUNAN PROVINCE BASED ON LEADING FACTORS

关键词:  主导因子农业灾害风险评价湖南省可持续发展

Key words:  leading factor  agricultural disaster  risk assessment  Hunan province  sustainable development

摘要:

［目的］对农业灾害风险展开评价，为防灾减灾政策的制定和执行提供理论参考，将有利于区域农业的可持续发展。［方法］基于引起湖南省农业灾害风险的旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、病虫害和霜冻5个主导因子，分别分析2009—2016年各主导因子的受灾率和成灾率变化趋势，并通过受灾率、成灾率、灾害脆弱度、灾害经济损失所占比重和因灾缺粮人口所占比重5项指标构建农业灾害风险评价模型，整体评估该省农业灾害风险度，同时采用DEA中的CCR模型进一步对全省抗旱防洪效率进行了探讨。［结果］（1）2009—2016年，在湖南省5个农业灾害风险主导因子中，旱灾和水灾是受灾率和成灾率均较高的两种灾害，风雹灾、病虫和霜冻的受灾率和成灾率相对较低。水灾的发生频次最高，风雹灾和病虫害发生频次较低。（2）2009—2016年，湖南省均有发生不同程度的农业灾害风险。其中，2013年农业灾害风险度最高，为0203。2015年，风险度最低，为878。农业灾害脆弱度整体上呈降低趋势，由2009年的6100%降低到2016年的5416%。（3）2009—2016年，湖南省抗旱防洪效率值波动较大，在2010、2011和2013年抗旱防洪效率值为100，这些年份湖南省在抗旱防洪方面的投入和产出达到了最佳状态，其他年份抗旱防洪效率均相对较低。（4）研究阶段内，大部分年份存在排灌动力机械台数和农用柴油使用量投入过多的现象。2012、2014—2016年，存在受旱灾未成灾面积产出不足的现象。［结论］该省农业灾害发生较频繁，抗灾能力有待进一步提升，今后应提高对农业灾害的防范意识，减少农业损失。

Abstract:

The evaluation of agricultural disaster risks provides theoretical reference for the formulation and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies, which will be conducive to the sustainable development of regional agriculture. Based on the five leading factors of drought, flood, wind, disaster, pest and frost caused by the agricultural disaster risk in the province, the change trend of the disaster affected rate and disaster suffering rate of each leading factor from 2009 to 2016 were analyzed, and the disaster rate was adopted. The disaster affected rate and disaster suffering rate, disaster vulnerability, the proportion of disaster economic losses and the proportion of the population affected by the disaster deficient population were used to construct an agricultural disaster risk assessment model, and the overall assessment of the risk of agricultural disasters in the province was got, meanwhile the CCR model in DEA was adopted to explore the province′s flood and flood disaster efficiency. The results were showed as follows. Firstly, from 2009 to 2016, among the five agricultural disaster risk leading factors in Hunan province, droughts and floods were two kinds of disasters with high disaster affected rate and disaster suffering rate, and the disaster rate and the incidence of wind, disease, pests and frosts was relatively low. The frequency of floods was the highest, and the frequency of windstorms and pests was low. Secondly, from 2009 to 2016, there were different levels of agricultural disaster risks in Hunan province. Among them, in 2013, the agricultural disaster risk was the highest, at 0.203. In 2015, the risk was the lowest at 8.78. The overall vulnerability of agricultural disasters showed a downward trend, from 61.00% in 2009 to 54.16% in 2016. Thirdly, from 2009 to 2016, the drought and flood control efficiency values of Hunan province fluctuated greatly. In 2010, 2011 and 2013, the drought and flood control efficiency value was 1.00. In these years, the input and output of Hunan province in drought and flood control reached the best state. In other years, the drought and flood control efficiency was relatively low. Finally, in the research stage, the number of irrigation and drainage machinery and the use of agricultural diesel were excessive in most years. In 2012, 2014-2016, there was a shortage of output due to drought free areas. The agricultural disasters in this province have occurred frequently, and the ability to resist disasters needs to be further improved. In the future, awareness of agricultural disasters should be raised to reduce agricultural losses.