粮食政策对主产区贫困户收入影响的实证研究*——基于冀鲁豫农户调研数据

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF GRAIN POLICIES ON POOR HOUSEHOLDS′ INCOME IN MAIN GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS*——BASED ON THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA IN HEBEI, SHANDONG AND HENAN

关键词:  粮食主产区粮食政策贫困户农民收入影响分位数回归

Key words:  main grain producing areas  food policies  poor households  farmers′ income  policy effects  quantile regression model

摘要:

［目的］粮食主产区农民收入的稳定增长直接影响种粮积极性，与粮食稳定供给有着密切关系，深入分析粮食政策对主产区农户特别是贫困户的影响对于评价和完善粮食政策及促进贫困户增收有着现实意义。［方法］利用粮食主产区冀鲁豫3省的农户实地调研数据，采用分位数回归方法基于国家贫困标准和国际贫困标准实证分析粮食政策对贫困户和非贫困户人均收入的影响。［结果］粮食主产区贫困户具有多维贫困的特征，提高政策价格水平和增加补贴收入均有助于贫困户收入增长，但销售渠道对贫困户和非贫困户人均收入的影响均不显著； 从缩小农户收入差距来看，增加补贴收入比提高政策价格水平对于主产区贫困户脱贫的作用更为显著。［结论］因此，粮食主产区农户的扶贫政策需进一步地由收入贫困转向多维贫困，结合其他多种政策措施制定更有针对性的扶贫政策，充分发挥非农就业对农民增收的促进作用，注重贫困农民人力资本的积累和素质的提升，进一步增强农业信贷的可得性和便利性，支持发展主要粮食作物政策性保险。

Abstract:

The steady increase of households′ income has a direct impact on grain planting enthusiasm in main grain producing areas, which is also related to the stable grain supply closely. In depth analysis of the grain policy impact on households especially poor households in major production areas have practical significance for evaluating and improving grain policy, also it could promote poor households′ income increase. Based on the survey data from households in Hebei, Shandong and Henan, according to the national poverty standards and the international poverty standards, this paper used the quantile regression model to conduct an empirical research and comparison on the food policy impact on per capita income of poor and non poor households. The results showed that the poverty stricken households in the main grain producing areas had the characteristics of multi dimensional poverty. The policy price level enhancing and subsidy income increasing were conducive to the poor households′ income growth, however, the influence of sales channel on the per capita income of poor households and non poor households was not significant. Increasing the subsidy income had a more significant effect on poverty alleviation of poor households than enhancing the policy price level in the main production areas from the perspective of narrowing the households′ income gap. Therefore, poverty alleviation policies in major grain producing areas need to be shift to multi dimensional poverty from income poverty, and combination with other policies and measures to formulate more targeted policies. The government should give full play to the role of non agricultural employment in increasing households′ income, also pay attention to the poor households′ human capital accumulation and quality improvement. Besides, the availability and convenience of agricultural credit should be further enhanced, as well as support the development of policy insurance for major grain crops.