供给侧结构改革背景下的西南地区农业全要素生产率分析

ANALYSIS OF THE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OF AGRICULTURE IN SOUTHWEST CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF THE STRUCTURAL REFORM ON THE SUPPLY SIDE

关键词:  西南地区农业全要素生产率Malmquist指数收敛性技术进步

Key words:  southwest China  agricultural total factor productivity  Malmquist index  astringency  technical progress

摘要:

［目的］探究在制度改革背景下的农业生产力发展水平和地区差异，有利于全面了解农业发展状况，为后期农业政策的制定、调整以及农业发展提供理论基础。［方法］文章利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对我国西南地区5个省（市）农业全要素生产率（TFP）水平变化发展趋势进行分析，并在此基础上对不同地区农业TFP差异变化和发展趋势进行预测。［结果］（1）Malmquist指数分析结果表明，我国西南地区农业TFP呈缓慢增长的趋势。通过对不同地区农业TFP结果进行比较，四川省农业TFP有先逐渐上升后下降的趋势，而技术进步是影响四川省农业TFP增长的原因；（2）重庆市农业TFP也是呈现波动式缓慢增加的趋势，年平均增长率为354%； 贵州省农业TFP近20年来增长速度最快，主要影响因素为技术进步； 云南和广西农业TFP也均呈缓慢增长的趋势，技术效率和技术进步在不同时期对农业TFP的影响有所差异。（3）收敛性分析结果表明，我国西南地区农业TFP差异有减小的趋势，并且不同地区农业TFP水平具有向各自稳定状态发展的可能性。［结论］我国西南地区农业TFP增长与技术进步具有较高的同步性，因此，制约我国西南地区农业全要素生产率增长的关键因素是农业科技进步。在供给侧结构性改革背景下，必须以市场需求为科研导向，加大科技创新投入力度，促进我国西南地区农业的可持续发展。

Abstract:

Exploring the level of agricultural productivity development and regional differences under the background of institutional reform is conducive to understanding the agricultural development situation in an all round way and providing a theoretical basis for the the formulation and adjustment of agricultural policies and agricultural development in the later period. In this paper, DEA Malmquist index method was used to analyze the change trend of total agricultural factor productivity (TFP) level in 5 provinces (cities) in southwest China, and on this basis, the variation trend of TFP difference and its own development trend in different regions were forecasted. The result of Malmquist index analysis showed that the total factor productivity of agriculture in southwest China was increasing slowly. By comparing the results of TFP in different regions, the TFP of Sichuan province had the tendency of rising gradually and decreasing slowly at first, and the technical progress was the reason of affecting the increase of the total factor productivity of agriculture in Sichuan province. The total factor productivity of agriculture in Chongqing also showed a fluctuating trend, with an average annual growth rate of 3.54. The agricultural total factor productivity of Guizhou province had the fastest growth rate in the past 20 years, and the main influencing factor of TFP was technological progress. The TFP of Yunnan and Guangxi was also increasing slowly. The influence of technical efficiency and technological progress on TFP was different in different periods. The result of convergence analysis showed that the difference of agricultural total factor productivity level in southwest China was decreasing, and the productivity level in different regions was likely to develop to their own stable state. The growth of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in southwest China has a high synchronism with technological progress. Therefore, the key factor restricting the growth of TFP in Southwest China is the progress of agricultural science and technology. Under the background of supply side structural reform, we must take market demand as the direction of scientific research, increase the input of science and technology innovation, and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in Southwest China.