红枣产业综合发展水平测度及其影响因素实证分析*——以兵团第一师阿拉尔市为例

STUDY ON THE COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF THE JUJUBE INDUSTRY AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS*——A CASE OF ALAER IN FIRST DIVISION CORPS

关键词:  红枣产业综合发展水平TOPSIS GAR模型影响因素变异系数健康度

Key words:  comprehensive development level of jujube industry  TOPSIS GAR model  influencing factor  coefficient of variation  degree of health

摘要:

［目的］在大力发展林果经济和特色农业战略背景下，红枣产业日渐成为扶贫支柱产业，研究红枣产业可改善红枣产业发展过程中的“枣贱伤农”现象，促进其健康可持续发展对我国脱贫攻坚战的胜利起着关键推进作用。［方法］通过采用TOPSIS-GAR组合模型、变异系数确定权重法、健康度模型相结合分析研究2006—2016年红枣产业发展的综合水平、健康度水平及其影响因素进行初步探讨分析。［结果］2006—2016年主产区兵团一师阿拉尔的红枣产业综合发展水平虽呈逐年上升趋势，但近两年增长趋势放缓，2016年已经趋于稳定发展期；主产区降水量与在岗职工年平均工资是影响红枣产业经济发展最大的两个因素；2006—2016年主产区红枣产业健康度水平一直处于于亚健康与不健康相交替的状态，2015年以后红枣产业健康度水平呈大幅下滑趋势，与主产区红枣产业实际发展健康情况相一致。［结论］根据实证结果提出具有实践意义的促进主产区红枣产业健康可持续发展的对策和思路。

Abstract:

Under the background of vigorously developing the forest fruit economy and characteristic agriculture strategy, the jujube industry has become a pillar industry for poverty alleviation. Studying the healthy and sustainable development of the jujube industry plays a key role in the victory of China′s poverty alleviation. In view of this, based on a large number of data model analysis and index selection, this research constructed the jujube industry comprehensive development level index system and its influencing factor of index system, starting from the factors influencing the jujube industry comprehensive development level analysis of the jujube industry development present situation, improve the jujube industry development in the process of "jujube base hurt farmers" phenomenon. Comprehensive application of TOPSIS GAR model and the variation coefficient method of determining the weight and the health model research in 2006-2016 for the development of jujube industry comprehensive level, health level and its influencing factors were discussed. TOPSIS model was used to evaluate the comprehensive industrial level of the jujube industry in main producing areas, which created the basic conditions and laid an important foundation for analyzing the influencing factors of the development of the jujube industry with GAR. It was a necessary precondition to calculate the level of industrial health of the main producing area by using the health degree model to determine the weight of various influencing factors of the jujube industry by using the coefficient of variation. The results were showed as follows. Firstly, the comprehensive development level of jujube industry in the main producing areas in 2006-2016 had been increasing year by year, but the growth trend had slowed down in the past two years, and the growth period of 2016 had been stable. Secondly, the precipitation in main producing areas and the average annual salary of the main producing areas is the two factors that influenced the economic development of the jujube industry. Thirdly, jujube industry from 2006 to 2016 had been in the state of healthy and unhealthy phase alternating, and the health level of the health level of jujube industry had declined sharply after 2015, which were consistent with the actual development of the jujube industry in the main producing area. In conclusion, based on the empirical results, the countermeasures of promoting sustainable development of jujube industry in main producing areas are put forward.