中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

STUDY ON THE COMPETITIVENESS AND COMPLEMENTARITY OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND "THE BELT AND ROAD" COUNTRIES

关键词:  一带一路农产品贸易现状竞争性互补性

Key words:  the Belt and Road  agricultural products trade  present situation  competitiveness  complementarity

摘要:

［目的］文章基于UNCOMTRADE数据库和SITC，Rev3商品分类方法，结合中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状与趋势，从总体、分区域、分种类3个方面判断了2000—2017年中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状及特征。［方法］依次计算四种实证测度指数（RCA指数、TCI指数、TII指数、GL指数），分析了中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性。［结果］（1）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易发展迅速但中国一直处于贸易逆差的地位，贸易逆差呈N型趋势；（2）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的集中度较高，主要集中在个别区域和几种农产品上，东南亚依然是最大的贸易市场同时产品市场结构发生改变；（3）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性并存，但互补性明显更强，比较优势差异明显，双方以产业间贸易为主。［结论］中国与“一带一路”沿线国家应抓住新机遇，加大政策支持力度加强，优化贸易结构，充分发挥各国优势，实现互利共赢。

Abstract:

Based on the UNCOMTRADE database and SITC, Rev.3 commodity classification method, combining the current situation and trend of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, this research judged the current situation and characteristics of agricultural products trade between China and countries along the line from 2000 to 2017 from three aspects, namely, overall, subregional and category. And it analyzed the competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural trade between China and countries along the line through the calculation of four empirical measures index (RCA index, TCI index, TII index, GL index) in turn. The results showed that (1) Trade in agricultural products between China and the countries along the line had been developing rapidly but China had been in a position of trade deficit, and the trade deficit showed an N shaped trend;(2) The concentration of trade in agricultural products between China and the countries along the line was relatively high, mainly in some regions and several kinds of agricultural products. Southeast Asia remained the largest trading market while product market structure had changed; (3) The competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural trade between China and the countries along the line co exist, but their complementarities were obviously stronger, the difference of comparative advantage was obvious. The two sides were mainly inter industry trade. China and other countries along the line should seize new opportunities, intensify policy support, optimize the structure of trade, give full play to their respective advantages and achieve mutual benefits and win win results.