新形势下稳定中国玉米供给的影响因素研究*——基于东北地区动态面板数据的实证分析

STUDY ON THE FACTORS AFFECTING STABILIZING CHINA′S MAIZE SUPPLY UNDER THE NEW SITUATION*——AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON DYNAMIC PANEL DATA IN NORTHEAST CHINA

关键词:  玉米新形势供给反应东北地区Nerlove模型

Key words:  maize  new trend  supply reaction  the northeast of China  Nerlovel model

摘要:

［目的］结合当前国内玉米供需新形势，通过研究影响玉米供给的主要因素，探究农户种植行为改变动因，从而为保证玉米稳定供给提出建议。［方法］选取辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、内蒙古4个地区1999—2017年的省际面板数据，基于Nerlove模型对东北地区玉米供给反应进行实证研究。［结果］玉米市场价格对农户玉米生产决策的影响显著，玉米供给短期价格弹性较低，长期价格弹性较高，玉米生产具有较强的惯性，大豆市场价格、自然风险对玉米生产具有负向影响，由于收储细节不够完善、收购企业单方面标准使得临时收储制度在实际实施过程中对提高农户种植积极性发挥作用有限。［结论］在临储取消后政府应积极搭建玉米产销协作平台，加强市场价格信息平台建设，保持“价补分离”政策的稳定性，进一步完善生产者补贴机制，加大农业科技创新投入，建立健全农业保险制度，增强农业抗风险能力。

Abstract:

Under the new situation of domestic maize supply and demand, this paper explores the motivation of farmers to change their planting behavior by investigating the main factors which affect the supply of maize, so as to put forward suggestions to ensure the stability of maize supply. Based on the panel data of four provinces including Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, in China from 1999 to 2017, this paper made an empirical analysis of the supply response of maize in the studied areas by using Nerlove model. The result showed that there was a significant effect of maize market price on farmers′ maize production decision. In the short run, the price elasticity of maize supply was low; while in the long run, the price elasticity was relatively higher. Also, we found that there was a strong inertia in maize production, and the market price of soybean and the natural disaster had a negative influence on maize production. Due to the incompleteness of details in collection and storage and the unilateral standard of acquired enterprises, the reform of the temporary reserve system played a limited role in improving farmers′ planting enthusiasm in the process of actual implementation. After the abolition of temporary reserve system, the government should actively build a cooperative platform for maize production and marketing and strengthen the construction of market price information platform, so as to maintain the stability of the policy "the separation of price and supplement". Meanwhile, the government should improve the mechanism of producer subsidy, increase investments in agricultural scientific and technological innovation and establish or improve the agricultural insurance system to enhance the ability of agricultural risk resistance.