小麦价格政策对新疆农户供给行为影响的实证分析

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF WHEAT PRICE POLICY ON THE SUPPLY BEHAVIOR OF FARMERS IN XINJIANG

关键词:  价格政策小麦产量播种面积供给行为C—D函数新疆

Key words:  price policy  wheat yield  wheat sown area  supply behavior  Cobb Douglas Production Function  Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］价格政策是影响农户供给行为的重要因素，研究小麦价格政策对小麦产量和播种面积的影响，有助于理顺小麦价格形成机制，科学制定补贴方案，合理调控市场供求，确保口粮安全和农民增收。［方法］文章选取小麦产量、播种面积、综合价格政策等指标，分别构建C—D函数模型，以衡量各变量对新疆小麦产量和播种面积的影响。［结果］（1）对小麦产量有正向影响的指标按其作用由大到小排序依次为农业机械总动力、小麦播种面积、化肥使用量，而农业劳动力和农作物成灾面积对小麦产量具有负影响。（2）有效灌溉面积对小麦播种面积的影响最大，农作物受灾面积对小麦播种面积的影响最小，综合价格政策对小麦播种面积的弹性系数为019。（3）综合价格政策对新疆农户供给行为的影响机制是通过影响小麦播种面积进而影响小麦产量供给。［结论］扩大绿色有机小麦生产规模、增强价格政策调控、提升小麦有效灌溉水平和加强农业科技应用是提升新疆小麦供给水平和促进农民增收的有效途径。

Abstract:

Price policy is an important factor affecting the supply behavior of farmers. In this paper, the impacts of wheat price policy on wheat yield and wheat sown area were studied. This study will help to understand the wheat price formation mechanism, frame agricultural subsidies scientifically, regulate market supply demand rationally, and ensure rations security and increase farmers′ income. Many indicators were selected, such as wheat yield, wheat sown area and comprehensive price policy which includes Minimum Purchase Price and Direct Subsidy Policy. Then, a Cobb Douglas production function model was constructed to measure the influences of each variable on wheat yield and wheat sown area. The indicators that had a positive impact on wheat yield were, in descending order, the total power of agricultural machinery, wheat sown area and the amount of fertilizer used, while the agricultural labor force and the disaster affected crop area had a negative impact on wheat yield. The effective irrigation area had the greatest influence on the wheat sown area, while the disaster affected wheat area had the smallest influence on the area. The elasticity coefficient of comprehensive price policy on wheat sown area was 0.19. The influence of comprehensive price policy on the supply behavior of Xinjiang farmers was to affect the wheat sown area and then the supply of wheat yield. Based on our studies, some effective ways are put forward to increase the supply of wheat and the farmers′ income in Xinjiang, such as expanding the production scale of organic wheat, enhancing the regulation of price policy, improving the effective irrigation practices of wheat and strengthening the application of agricultural science and technology.