基于改进TOPSIS法的河南省农业现代化发展水平评价

EVALUATION ON AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION LEVEL BASED ON THE IMPROVED TOPSIS METHOD IN HENAN PROVINCE

关键词:  农业现代化发展水平评价改进TOPSIS法评价指标体系河南省

Key words:  agricultural modernization  evaluation of development level  the improved TOPSIS method  evaluation system  Henan province

摘要:

［目的］农业是一个空间溢出显著的行业，农业现代化是一个动态、系统、长期的过程。为科学评判河南省农业现代化发展水平，为河南省建设现代农业强省提供指导，有必要建立一套有效的农业现代化发展水平评价技术方法体系。［方法］文章以2007—2016年时间序列河南省数据为样本，构建包括农业投入水平、农业信息化水平、农业产出水平、农业产业化水平和农业可持续发展水平等的综合评价指标体系，采用改进TOPSIS法进行农业现代化发展水平测度。［结果］河南省农业现代化发展水平呈现稳步增长的态势，农业现代化发展水平年均增长1053%。从发展阶段上看，河南省农业现代化发展经历了起步阶段—初步实现阶段—基本实现阶段3个发展阶段。准则层评价结果显示，河南省农业现代化的5个准则层变化取向和变化幅度存在差异。农业投入水平呈下降趋势，农业信息化程度、农业产出水平、农业产业化水平和农业可持续发展水平均呈增长趋势。从增长幅度看，农业信息化程度增幅最大，年均增长35%，其次是农业产业化水平年均增幅24%，农业可持续发展水平年均增长1667%，农业产出水平年均增幅9%。总体上，河南省农业现代化发展水平仍有较大的提升空间。［结论］河南省农业现代化发展需要进一步加大农业科技创新投入，提升农业信息化水平，深化农业供给侧结构性改革，提高农业产业化水平，增强农业可持续发展能力。

Abstract:

Agriculture is a significant industry for space spillovers. Agricultural modernization is a dynamic, systematic and long term process. To scientifically judge the development level of agricultural modernization in Henan province and provide guidance for the construction of a modern agricultural strong province in Henan province, it is necessary to establish an effective technical evaluation system for agricultural modernization development level. Taking the time series data of Henan province from 2007 to 2016 as a sample, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system including five levels of agricultural input level, agricultural informatization level, agricultural output level, agricultural industrialization level and agricultural sustainable development ability. And the TOPSIS method was used to measure the level of agricultural modernization development. The results showed that the development level of agricultural modernization in Henan province showed a steady growth trend, and the agricultural modernization development level was growing at an average annual rate of 10.53%. From the perspective of development stage, the development of agricultural modernization in Henan province experienced three stages of development: the initial stage the initial realization stage the basic realization stage. The evaluation results of the criteria layer showed that there were differences in the orientation and change range of the five criteria layers of agricultural modernization in Henan province. The level of agricultural input showed a downward trend, and the degree of agricultural informatization, agricultural output level, agricultural industrialization level and sustainable agricultural development showed an increasing trend. In terms of growth rate, the degree of agricultural informatization increased the most, with an average annual growth rate of 35%, followed by an average annual growth rate of 24% for agricultural industrialization, an average annual growth rate of 16.67% for agricultural sustainable development, and an average annual growth rate of 9% for agricultural output. In general, there was still room for improvement in the level of agricultural modernization in Henan province. The development of agricultural modernization in Henan province needs to further increase investment in agricultural science and technology innovation, improve the level of agricultural informatization, deepen the structural reform of agricultural supply side, improve the level of agricultural industrialization, and enhance the sustainable development of agriculture.