农产品供应链重构风险传导SIR建模与仿真研究

STUDY ON SIR MODELING AND SIMULATION OF THE RISK CONDUCTION IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS SUPPLY CHAIN RECONSTRUCTION

关键词:  农产品供应链重构风险传导SIR建模土地流转

Key words:  agricultural products supply chain  reconstruction risk  conduction  SIR modeling  land circulation

摘要:

［目的］利用动力学SIR模型模拟农产品供应链重构内生风险传导过程，以期在有效把握核心重构风险传导规律基础上为整体管控重构进程风险提出前瞻性思路。［方法］基于农产品供应链重构风险整体构架和重构进程风险传导复杂网络，以湖北省243家大型连锁超市生鲜农产品供应链2007—2017年重构样本数据为研究对象，建立重构进程内生风险传导SIR模型和规划演化模式，利用Matlab软件对模型仿真得到有效管控状态下演化趋势。［结果］在以战术性重构为主导组织结构战略性重构中进程风险传导安全边际X1s超过50%，决定了其净风险阈α0（i）、β0（i），相应的业务单元和功能模块重构进程风险预警和风险恢复能力提高值是主控指标，对进程风险传导感染率x1（i）和恢复率x2（i）起主导作用。［结论］近年来土地流转驱动农产品供应链重构中组织结构重构整体具有战略性，在以战术性重构为主导风险传导管控中重点应加强业务单元和功能模块重构进程在重构易感状态（S）、感染传播状态（I）管控能力，能有效降低波动幅度。

Abstract:

This research aims to get a forward thinking on reconstruction process risk comprehensive management on basis of grasping core risk conduction law effectively in Agricultural Products Supply Chain(APSC) reconstruction by applying the dynamic SIR model to simulate its endogenous risk conduction process. Based on the total risk framework and complex conduction network of APSC reconstruction processes, this research took reconstruction sample data in fresh APSC leading by 243 large chain supermarkets in Hubei province from 2007 to 2017 as study object, established the SIR model on APSC reconstruction, including its evolution scheme planning, and simulated model evolution trend under effective control status by using the Matlab software. The results showed that in strategic reconstruction process of organization structure leading by tactical reconstruction, the safety margin of risk conduction X1s exceeded 50% which determined its net risk threshold α0(i) and β0(i). Accordingly, the risk early warning and recovery ability were the main control indicators in business unit and functional module reconfiguration, which played a leading role in infecting rate X1(i) and recovery rate X2(i) of process risk conduction. So, the organization reconstruction are strategic totally in APSC driving by land circulation in recent years. The emphasis should strengthen control ability in status of Susceptible(S) and Infectious(I) of business units and functional modules reconstruction process leading by tactical reconstructing, and could reduce fluctuation range effectively.