干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发生态风险评价及预测*——以开都河流域为例

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF UNUSED LAND DEVELOPMENT IN INLAND RIVER BASIN OF ARID AREA*——A CASE STUDY IN KAIDU RIVER BASIN

关键词:  生态风险评价 PSR模型灰色预测模型未利用地开发开都河流域

Key words:  ecological risk assessment  PSR mode  Grey Forecasting Mode  unused land development  Kaidu River Basin

摘要:

［目的］探析开都河流域在未利用地开发过程中生态风险指数的变化特征，为西北干旱区内陆河流域土地利用结构调整与生态保护修复协调发展提供建议。［方法］文章采用PSR模型构建基于14个指标框架的流域未利用地开发生态风险评价指标体系； 通过测度综合生态风险指数法进行时空视角的特征变化与格局划分评价； 并运用灰色预测模型前瞻性模糊预测该区域未来4年的生态风险变化态势。［结果］2009—2016年开都河流域未利用地开发生态风险整体呈波动上升趋势，生态风险程度由较低下降至低生态风险水平，随后上升至一般程度。这是因为土地开发利用对生态环境造成压力，但在政府相应生态保护政策的出台落实下又逐步缓解，生态系统结构和功能好转明显，抵御风险能力得以提升。预测结果显示2017—2020年开都河流域生态风险将由一般生态风险程度上升至较高程度，因此需要采取适当的管理措施来消减生态风险发生的可能性。［结论］开都河流域作为沙漠中典型的绿洲生态系统，生态环境较为脆弱，通过未利用地的差别化开发、鼓励零星分散的开发模式以及细分不同地类开发的生态补偿设置等方式路径，以期缓解降低干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发带来的生态风险。

Abstract:

This paper is intended to analyze the change characteristics of ecological risk index in the process of unused land development in Kaidu River Basin, so as to provide suggestions for the coordinated development of land use structure adjustment and ecological protection and restoration in the inland river basin of northwest arid area. On the basis of the PSR model, an ecological risk assessment index system for unused land development had been established, which included 14 indicators. The comprehensive ecological risk index method was adopted to evaluate the change of characteristics and the division of patterns from the perspective of time and space. At the same time, Grey Forecasting Model was used to predict the trend of ecological risks in the region over the next 4 years. The results showed that there were rising ecological risks with fluctuations of unused land development from 2009 to 2016. The ecological risk level firstly decreased to a lower ecological risk level, and then went up to a general level. The likely cause was that the pressure of ecosystem was generated due to land development. However, with the implementation of ecological conservation policies, those issues were gradually relieving. The forecast results showed that the level of ecological risk had increased from the general level to a higher level during last three years. Therefore, appropriate management measures should be taken to reduce the possibility of ecological risks. The Kaidu River Basin, as a typical oasis ecosystem in desert, has a fragile ecological environment, which is not suitable for large scale development. It is expected to mitigate the ecological risks during the development of unused land by the means of the differential development of unused land, encouraging scattered development models, and subdivision of ecological compensation settings for different land types development.