中国土地经济密度动态变化及其影响因素时空非平稳性分析

THE DYNAMIC CHANGES OF LAND ECONOMIC DENSITY AND SPATIAL TEMPORAL NON STATIONARY OF ITS INFLUNCING FACTORS IN CHINA

关键词:  土地经济密度动态变化时空非平稳性探索性时空数据分析地理时空加权回归模型

Key words:  land economic density  dynamic change  spatial temporal non stationary  exploratory time space data analysis  geographically and temporally weighted regression

摘要:

［目的］掌握2005—2016年我国主要省份（不包括港澳台等地区）土地经济密度的动态变化及其影响因素的时空非平稳性。［方法］ESTDA GTWR研究框架，包括空间马尔科夫、LISA时间路径、LISA时空迁跃、地理时空加权回归模型。［结果］（1）我国主要省份土地经济密度整体稳定，逐级递增，空间非均衡性增强，且在高邻域水平下具有均质性，低邻域水平下具有异质性，在高区域水平下较为稳定，中低区域水平下更易变动，整体受邻域影响较小。（2）土地经济密度局部空间结构动态性较弱，动态强度降低，高动态强度省域数量增加； 局部空间依赖方向较为稳定并趋向更稳定，波动重心由北向南转移。（3）土地经济密度局部空间凝聚力较高，存在路径依赖或锁定特征，只有青海省发生了时空迁跃。（4）人均GDP、货运量、土地出让金、二、三产业产值比重以及地形起伏度对土地经济密度整体影响为正，城市化率、城市规模对土地经济密度整体影响为负； 在研究时点中，所有影响因素的时空非平稳性都有所增强，在空间上表现出收缩、稳定、位移、集聚、扩散以及极化等特征，在强度上则存在增强，减弱，稳定的变化趋势。［结论］要实现土地经济密度局部空间格局的跃升存在难度，未来应制定具有弹性的土地管理政策，促进土地经济密度均衡增长。

Abstract:

The research aims to analyze the dynamic changes of land economic density and spatial temporal non stationary of its influencing factors by using the framework of ESTDA GTWR in China from 2005 to 2016. The results showed that:（1）The land economic density was growing steadily and trended to be stable, however it also tended to be unbalanced in space. The land economic density was very stable in high regional level, but more variable in middle or low regional level, at the same time, the land economic density was homogenous at the high neighborhood level and polarized at the low or middle neighborhood level. And the land economic density of neighborhood had little impact on it.（2）The land economic density′s local spatial structure was stable, and the dynamic intensity decreased, but the number with high dynamic intensity province increased; and the local spatial dependence direction of land economic density was relatively stable and tended to be more stable, and the center shifted from north to south. （3）The land economic density′s local spatial cohesion was very high, existing path dependence or locking features, and only Qinghai province had occurred temporal transitive leap. （4）The overall impact of per capita GDP, freight volume, land transfer fee, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries, amplitude of landforms on land economic density was positive. But the urbanization rate and urban scale had a negative impact on it; At the time of the study, the spatial and temporal non stationarity of all influencing factors had been enhanced, and presented the characteristics of shrinkage, stability, displacement, agglomeration, diffusion, and polarization in space and the enhancement, weakening and stability in strength. So it is difficult to achieve a leap in the local spatial pattern of land economy. So the flexible land management policies should be formulated to promote balanced growth of land economic density.