基于加权KL-TOPSIS评价中国大陆食物安全脆弱性的区域差异

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF FOOD SECURITY VULNERABILITY IN CHINA BASED ON WEIGHTED KL TOPSIS METHOD

关键词:  食物安全脆弱性加权KL-TOPSIS法区域差异演变特征

Key words:  food security  vulnerability  weighted KL TOPSIS method  regional differences  evolution characteristics

摘要:

［目的］食物安全关系着中国社会经济健康发展与政局稳定。食物安全至今尚未形成统一的评价标准，有必要从脆弱性角度，分层次多角度探讨区域食物安全演变趋势及区域差异，揭示造成脆弱性的主要原因，以便寻找有针对性的应对措施来确保区域食物安全。［方法］通过构建食物安全脆弱性评价框架，建立一个包含多层次及多因素的评价指标体系，再用加权KL-TOPSIS方法计算样本的暴露、敏感、适应及脆弱指数，然后用它们来判别各地区的暴露、敏感、适应及脆弱程度。［结果］1990—2015年，食物主产区、平衡区及主销区资源环境、社会生活、经济发展子系统均为微脆弱，平衡区各子系统最脆弱； 暴露、敏感、适应及脆弱水平在区域内与区域间存在差异，各省（市、区）食物安全演变方向也存在差异； 大多数地区总体状况是暴露水平低，敏感程度高，尤其是对资源环境高度敏感，且适应能力弱，食物安全处于微脆弱状态。［结论］依原始数据及计算的指数值的变异系数确定权重，不仅客观，还可判断各指标或指数对暴露、敏感、适应及脆弱性的影响程度，从而为降低区域食物安全的脆弱性提供参考； 加权KL-TOPSIS方法能够定量评价食物安全各子系统与系统的暴露、敏感、适应及脆弱性； 导致暴露、敏感、适应及脆弱水平存在区域差异的原因不同，可为寻找降低食物不安全的对策指明方向，如降低资源环境敏感度与提高经济发展适应度，可显著降低资源环境子系统与经济发展子系统的脆弱性； 为降低资源环境暴露度，主产区要合理与节约利用水资源，主销区则须严格保护耕地资源。

Abstract:

Food security is ultimately important for China′s economy well development and the social stability. Previous studies have paid little attention to assessing food security at country or region level from the perspective of vulnerability and to establishing the unified assessment standard. This research gap will be narrowed by investigating the changes in regional food security and the regional differences from the perspective of vulnerability and examining the main causes of vulnerability. This study established a framework of food security vulnerability assessment and an evaluation indicator system, including a multi level and multiple factors. The weighted KL TOPSIS method was used to calculate the index of exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability. The values of those indexes were used to grade the degree of exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability of each region. The results showed that the subsystems of resource and environment, social life, economic development were in slightly weak vulnerability state for the primary production region, the consumption production balance region and the main sales region of food from 1990 to 2015. All subsystems of the consumption production balance region of food were the most vulnerable. The degrees of exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability between regions and within region were different. There were different trajectory of change in food security among provincial level regions. The overall state of food security for most provinces and cities were in low exposure, high sensitivity, especially highly sensitive to the resource and environment, and weak adaptability. The vulnerability of food security was in slightly weak. The weights determined by the coefficient of variation based on the original data of assessment indicators and the indexes were objective, but they can be used to judge the extent of the influence of the indicators or indexes on exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability, so as to provide reference for reducing the vulnerability of regional food safety. The weighted KL TOPSIS method can quantitatively evaluate the degree of exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability at all subsystems and system. The causes were different, which led to regional differences in the degrees of exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability. Therefore, the assessment results can offer certain guidelines for finding countermeasures to decrease food insecurity. For example, countermeasures include reducing the degree of sensitivity to resource and environment and improving the adaptability of economic development that significantly reduce the degree of vulnerability of the subsystem of resource and environment, and of economic development. To reduce the degree of exposure to resource and environment, water resources should be rationally and economically used in the primary production region of food and arable land in main sales region of food must be strictly protected.