基于贸易视角的中国大麦产业安全分析

CHINA′S BARLEY INDUSTRY SAFETY ANALYSIS BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF TRADE

关键词:  贸易中国大麦进口产业安全产业发展

Key words:  trade  China′s barley  import  industry security  industry development

摘要:

［目的］中国大麦出口量极低，国际市场占有率和贸易竞争力指数也非常低，大麦产业缺乏国际竞争力。然而，大麦进口量却在较高水平上不断攀升，进口增长速度较快，严重冲击国内大麦市场，大麦生产规模严重萎缩。且进口依存度和进口市场集中度非常高，进口风险加大。大麦贸易现状对大麦产业安全产生较大影响，大麦产业发展面临严峻挑战。因此，基于贸易视角分析大麦产业安全状况，掌握大麦产业安全水平和发展趋势，对保障大麦产业安全、促进大麦产业健康发展具有重要意义。［方法］选取国际竞争力和产业控制力两类指标反映大麦产业安全状况，通过设定大麦产业安全状态警限范围，采用映射方法计算大麦产业安全各指标安全状态的分数值，进而加权得出产业安全度综合指数，量化分析中国大麦产业安全状况。［结果］1995年与1996年产业安全度综合指数分别为7897和7932，大麦产业处于不安全状态。1997—2008年，产业安全度综合指数均超过80，大麦产业处于轻度危机状态。2009年以来，随着进口量的进一步增加，产业安全度综合指数均超过86，特别是2014年以来，由于进口量激增，产业安全综合指数超过92，大麦产业危机状况越来越严重。［结论］随着大麦产量和出口量的不断减少以及进口量和消费量的快速增加，大麦产业安全状态呈现不断恶化的态势，大麦产业安全状态与大麦贸易状况密切相关。文章提出加大政策支持力度、增强国际竞争力、规范进口管理和优化进口来源结构等保障大麦产业安全发展的政策建议。

Abstract:

China′s barley exports are extremely low, international market share and trade competitiveness are also very low, the barley industry lacks international competitiveness. While its imports are rising at a high level, and the import growth rate is very high. The import of barley are seriously impacting the domestic barley market and the scale of barley production is severely reducing. At the same time, the imports dependence and import market concentration are also very high, and the risk of import is rising. The current status of barley trade has a major impact on barley industry security. The barley industry is facing severe challenges. Therefore, analyzing the security status of the barley industry from the trade perspective and mastering the safety level and development trend of barley industry are of great significance for ensuring barley industry security and promoting the sound development of the barley industry. Two kind indicators of international competitiveness and industrial control were selected to reflect the safety status of barley industry. By setting the warning range of barley industry security status, we adopted the mapping method to calculate the score values of the security indicators, and then weighted the comprehensive index of the barley industry security to quantitatively analyze the barley industry security status. The results showed that the comprehensive indexes of barley industry security of 1995 and 1996 were 78.97 and 79.32 respectively, indicating the barley industry was in an unsafe state. From 1997 to 2008, the comprehensive index exceeded 80, indicating the barley industry was in the mild crisis state. Since 2009, with the further increase in imports, the comprehensive index had exceeded 86. Especially since 2014, due to the surge in imports, the comprehensive index had exceeded 92, implying the barley industry crisis had become more and more serious. With the continuous decrease in the production and exports, as well as the rapid increase of consumption and imports, the status of the barley industry security have kept deteriorating. The safety status of barley industry is closely related to the status of barley trade. The paper proposed some policy suggestions such as increasing domestic barley policy support, enhancing international competitiveness, managing barley imports reasonably and optimizing the structure of import sources.