扶贫政策工具组合对农户扩大生产规模经营的影响机制研究

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF POVERTY ALLEVIATION POLICY TOOLS MIXES ON FARMERS′ SCALE MANAGEMENT OF PRODUCTION EXPANSION

关键词:  扶贫政策工具组合特色产业规模经营演化博弈

Key words:  poverty alleviation policies  tools mixes  characteristic industry  scale management  evolutionary game

摘要:

［目的］为促进农户发展规模化特色产业脱贫，探索政府采取不同的扶贫政策措施对农户扩大生产规模经营行为的动态影响机制，为后续脱贫攻坚政策实施提供政策制定理论依据。［方法］利用演化博弈理论和数值仿真方法，建立政府与农户间的演化博弈模型，对产业扶贫项目补贴、贷款失信惩戒、科技培训3种扶贫政策工具及其组合影响农户扩大生产规模经营的动态过程进行分析。［结果］政府单独采取补贴或培训措施对农户激励效果不佳，贷款失信惩戒措施对农户扩大生产规模经营的影响具有不确定性； 补贴与贷款失信惩戒或培训组合刺激对农户扩大生产规模经营具有显著促进作用； 3种扶贫政策工具合理组合对农户的激励作用效果最佳。［结论］政府应将补贴与贷款失信惩戒或培训服务组合实施有助于推动农户扩大生产发展特色产业规模经营。从长远看，随着时间的推移，政府可逐渐降低3种扶贫政策工具的实施强度，农户也会渐渐自发地进行规模化特色产业生产经营来实现稳定脱贫。

Abstract:

In order to encourage farmers to develop characteristic large scale agricultural industries to get rid of poverty, this paper makes an exploration of the dynamic influence mechanism of different poverty alleviation policies and measures on farmers′ behavior of expanding scale management of production, which provides a theoretical basis for policy formulation for the follow up implementation of poverty alleviation. The paper used evolutionary game theory to establish an evolutionary game model between government and farmers, and analyzed the effects of three policy tools of subsidies for industrial poverty alleviation projects, punishment for credit breaking, and scientific and technological training and their mixes on farmers′ scale management of production expansion through numerical simulation method. Results showed that the incentive effect of subsidy or training measures taken by government alone on farmer was not good, and the impact of credit breaking punishment measure on farmers′ decision of scale management of production expansion was uncertain. Combination of subsidy and credit breaking punishment or training had a significant role in promoting farmers to implement scale management of production expansion. Rational mixes of three poverty alleviation policy tools had the best stimulating effect on farmers′ expansion of production scale management. In summary, implementing the combination of subsidy and credit breaking punishment or training measure will help farmers to expand production and develop scale management of characteristic industries, and with the passage of time, government can gradually reduce implementation intensity of the three poverty alleviation policy tools in the long run, and farmers will spontaneously carry out large scale production and management of characteristic industries.