农民以地养老意愿及影响因素分析*——基于河南省176位农民的实证调查

ANALYSIS OF FARMERS′ WILLINGNESS TO SUPPORT THE AGED AND THE INFLUENCING FACTORS*——AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATIONN BASED ON 176 FARMERS IN HENAN PROVINCE

关键词:  人口老龄化农民意愿承包地宅基地二元回归模型

Key words:  population aging  farmer′s willingness  contracted land  house site  dual regression model

摘要:

［目的］随着人口老龄化的加剧和农村外出务工人员数量的增加，农村老年人的养老形势日益严峻。利用农村无人耕种的承包地和荒废的宅基地来解决老年人的养老问题逐渐受到学者的关注。研究农民以地养老的意愿及影响因素，对于缓解农村老龄化形势、提升老年人晚年生活的幸福感具有重要意义。［方法］文章基于对河南省176位农民调查数据的统计分析，从农民个人特征、家庭特征、土地特征和农民心理认知情况4个方面选取了18个变量作为自变量，通过二元Logistic回归模型分析农民以地养老意愿的影响因素。［结果］农民的学历越高、家庭劳动力数量越多、非农收入占比越高、感觉养老金越充足，农民越愿意以承包地养老； 农民的房屋面积越大、房屋常住人口数越多、在城镇买有住房、越认可这种方式，农民越愿意以宅基地养老。［结论］在农村养老形势严峻的背景下，加快土地承包经营权确权登记、找准并关注有以地养老需求的农民、大力发展农村地区周边的非农产业、明确以地养老成立的立法条件以及加大以地养老模式的宣传力度可以进一步促进农村的发展。

Abstract:

With the intensification of the aging population and the increase of the number of migrant workers in rural areas, the pension situation of the aged in rural areas is becoming more and more severe. Solving the problem of supporting old people by using rural unattended and contracted land as well as dilapidated house site has gradually attracted the attention of scholars. Studying the farmer′s willingness to support the aged with land and its influencing factors has great significance to alleviate the aging situation in rural areas and improve the well being of the aged in their later years. According to the statistical analysis of the survey data of 176 farmers in Henan province, 18 variables were selected as independent variables from farmer′s personal characteristics, family characteristics, land characteristics and farmer′s psychological cognition to analyze the influencing factors of farmer′s willingness to support the aged with land through the binary logistic regression model. The study found that the farmer who had higher education level, greater number of family labor, higher proportion of non agricultural income, and more abundant pension was willing to support the aged with contracted land, while the farmer who had larger housing area, more permanent population, bought a house in a town, and more recognize this model was willing to support the aged with house site. Under the background of the severe rural pension situation, we should accelerate the registration of land contract management rights, identify and pay attention to the farmer who has this need to support the aged with land, vigorously develop non agricultural industries around rural areas, clarify the legislative conditions for the establishment of supporting the aged with land, and increase the propaganda of the model of supporting the aged with land to effectively alleviate the plight of the rural elderly care and further promote rural development.