| 摘要: |
| ［目的］研究新型农村养老保险制度对兼业农户土地转出是否具有促进作用。［方法］文章先采用比较静态分析，阐明了新农保的政策效果对土地转出的影响路径，同时，为了检验这种影响路径在现实中是否通畅，且影响程度如何，该文利用2014年CFPS数据，采用模糊断点回归方法，对领取新农保养老金促进兼业农户土地转出效果进行了实证研究，并采用了不同带宽、加入前定变量、多阶驱动变量、非参估计以及安慰剂测试等多种方法进行稳健性检验。［结果］比较静态分析说明新农保的转移性收入会对老年农户的农业劳动收入产生替代作用，且替代弹性大于1，可以有效地减少农业劳动需求，从而促使老年农户将手中的土地释放出来。而实证结果表明领取新农保养老金的农户，土地转出率显著提高30%。［结论］这说明了新农保与土地养老保障之间确实存在明显替代作用，社保体系的完善会为我国土地流转的加快推进提供良好的外部条件。 |
| 关键词: 新农保兼业农户劳动退出土地转出断点回归 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F3211 |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业产业技术体系资助项目（CARS-03-08B）；海南省社科基金：海南省农户农地流转行为及其收入效应研究（HNSK(ZC)19-20） |
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| WHETHER THE NEW RURAI PENSION INSURANCE CAN PROMOTE THE LAND TRASFER OF PART TIME FARMERS OR NOT*——BY FUZZY REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN |
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Guo Yixin1, Dai Ruixi2※, Zhang Liqin3
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1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;3. College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
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| Abstract: |
| This research aims to study whether the new rural endowment insurance system can promote the land transfer for concurrent farmers or not. The comparative static analysis was used to clarify the influence path of the new rural insurance policy effect on land transfer. Also, in order to test whether this influence path was unobstructed or not in reality, and measure the degree of influence, the 2014 CFPS data were used to estimate how new pension insurance promote the part time farmers land transfer by fuzzy regression discontinuity design. And a variety of methods such as different bandwidth, pre predecessor variables, driving variables in different orders, the estimation of non parametric method were adopted to do the robust tests. The results indicated that the transfer income from new rural insurance would have an alternative effect to elderly farmers′ agricultural labor income and the substitution elasticity was greater than 1, which effectively reduced the agricultural labor demand, the elderly farmers could release the land. The empirical results showed that the land transfer rate of farmers who received new farmers′ pensions had significantly increased by 30%. It proves that there is a significant substitution between the new rural insurance and the land endowment security, which provides good external conditions to accelerate the land transfer in China. |
| Key words: new rural pension insurance part time farmers work out land transfer fuzzy regression discontinuity design |
