基于DEA的农业水土资源匹配特征研究*——以甘肃省5流域为例

STUDY ON MATCHING CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES BASED ON DEA* ——TAKE GANSU PROVINCE 5 WATERSHED AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  农业水土资源匹配趋势及格局配置效率数据包络分析主成分分析甘肃省

Key words:  agricultural soil and water resources  matching trends and patterns  allocation efficiency  data envelopment analysis  principal component analysis  Gansu province

摘要:

［目的］水土资源可持续利用是经济社会和生态环境可持续发展的基础。以疏勒河、黑河、石羊河、黄河上游、嘉陵江5个流域为评价单元，研究2001—2016年甘肃省的流域农业水土资源配置效率的趋势、分析其主要影响因素，并基于不同流域农业生产投入及其冗余状况对生产效率提升途径进行探索。［方法］运用数据包络分析法中的BCC和CCR模型分析该省农业水土资源匹配特征，并利用Mann Kendall法进行趋势检验，最后运用主成分分析法探究其主要影响因素。［结果］（1）2001—2016年甘肃省农业水土资源利用综合效率、技术效率、规模效率总体走向呈现上升并趋于稳定，这种上升趋势通过了005的显著性检验；（2）从时间序列来看， 2001—2016年甘肃省及各流域地区的农业水土资源匹配程度总体上呈现上升趋势并趋于稳定状态； 从流域空间上来看，各流域农业水土资源匹配程度比较结果为：黑河＞石羊河＞黄河上游＞疏勒河＞嘉陵江；（3）总人口数、城镇化率、降水量、产水模数及GDP耗水量这5个影响因子的显著性和代表性增强，对甘肃省水土资源匹配的解释程度也较强。［结论］甘肃省水土资源匹配度有较大的提升空间，从各流域水土资源利用和管理特点出发，采取具体措施优化限制因子，可以促进区域比较优势的发挥，又能够引导区域农业经济空间的合理化，最终实现农业可持续发展目标。

Abstract:

The balanced utilization of water and soil resources is the basis of sustainable development of economic society and ecological environment. Taking Shule River, Heihe River, Shiyang River, the upper reaches of the Yellow River and Jialing River as evaluation units, this paper studies the trend of agricultural water and soil resources allocation efficiency in Gansu province from 2001 to 2016, analyses its main influencing factors, and explores ways to improve the production efficiency based on agricultural production input and redundancy in different basins. The matching trend of agricultural water and soil resources and its main influencing factors were analyzed by using the BCC and CCR models in data envelope analysis and the development trend was tested by the Mann kendall trend test method. The results were indicated as follows. (1) From 2001 to 2016, the overall trend of comprehensive efficiency, technical efficiency and scale efficiency of agricultural water and soil resources utilization in Gansu province increased and tended to be stable, which passed the 0.05 significance test; (2) From the time series perspective, the matching process of agricultural water and soil resources in Gansu province and various river basins from 2001 to 2016, the degree of agricultural water and soil resources matching in each basin showed an upward trend and tended to be stable; from the perspective of basin space, the results of comparing the degree of agricultural water and soil resources matching in each basin were: Heihe > Shiyang River > the upper reaches of the Yellow River > Shule River > Jialing River; (3) The five influencing factors of total population, urbanization rate, precipitation, water production modulus and GDP water consumption were obvious. And they had a good interpretation of the matching of water and land resources in Gansu province. Overall, the matching degree of soil and water resources in Gansu province has a large space for improvement. Based on the characteristics of water and land resources utilization and management in each basin, taking concrete measures and optimizing restriction factors can promote the development of regional comparative advantages, but also can guide the rationalization of regional agricultural economic space, and ultimately achieve the goal of sustainable agricultural development.