我国粮食生产的变化趋势及空间分异研究

RESEARCH ON THE TREND AND SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食生产空间分异省域种植面积产量

Key words:  grain production  spatial differentiation  province scale  planting area  yield

摘要:

［目的］探究我国粮食生产的空间布局演变，以期为新时期如何从整体上优化粮食生产布局、加快推进农业现代化的步伐提供理论参考。［方法］综合分析了1978—2018年我国粮食种植面积、总产量和单产水平的演变特征及三大主粮（玉米、稻谷和小麦）对全国粮食总产量的贡献变化趋势。基于省域尺度，对31个省（市、区）粮食种植面积、产量和单产的空间分异进行了探究，并采用全局Moran′s I指数和全局G系数分析了省域粮食单产量的相关关系。［结果］（1）1978—1985年我国粮食种植面积整体呈现递减的趋势，由于单产的大幅提升，总产量持续增长。1986—1999年种植面积相对波动较小，由于单产的不稳定导致总产量波动较大。2000—2003年随着种植面积的短暂降低，粮食产量也整体呈降低趋势，这个阶段单产水平也不稳定。2004—2017年由于单产和播种面积的共同作用，粮食产量基本呈现逐年递增的变化趋势。2018年相对2017年，粮食产量虽有所下降，但减幅不大，仍处于高产水平。玉米对产量的贡献超过水稻，成为我国第一大主粮。（2）我国粮食主产区主要集中在东部地区。2008—2018年各省（市、区）粮食种植面积呈现不同的变化趋势，其中北京、天津等10个（市、区）的种植面积降低幅度均在30%以上，其他地区或是面积扩大或是变化较小。相对种植面积，大部分省（市、区）的产量增加比例较大，尤其是主产区。（3）全国各地区粮食单产量呈现明显的递增趋势，粮食主产区较明显，空间布局变化较小。全国省域粮食单产量存在显著的正相关，空间溢出效应明显。［结论］在稳定粮食种植面积的基础上，提高单产水平，仍是新时期保障我国粮食安全的重要举措。

Abstract:

Food is the most basic and most important strategic material on which mankind depends, and it has an irreplaceable role in the stability of a country′s economy and society. This paper comprehensively analyzed the evolution characteristics of China′s grain planting area, output and yield level from 1978 to 2018, and the changes in the contribution of the three major staple foods (corn, rice and wheat) to the country′s total grain output. Based on the provincial scale, the spatial differentiation of grain planting area, yield and yield in 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) was explored, and the correlation between provincial grain yield per unit was analyzed by using the global Moran′s I index and global G coefficient. The result were showed as follows. (1) From 1978 to 1985, China′s grain planting area showed a declining trend overall. Due to the substantial increase in yield, the total output continued to increase. From 1986 to 1999, the relative fluctuation of the planted area was relatively small, and the total output fluctuated greatly due to the unstable yield. From 2000 to 2003, with the temporary decrease in planting area, the grain output also showed an overall downward trend, and the unit yield level was also unstable at this stage. From 2004 to 2017, due to the combined effect of yield and sown area, grain output basically showed a trend of increasing year by year. Although the grain output had decreased in 2018 compared to 2017, the decrease was not large, and it was still at a high yield level. Corn had contributed more to rice production than rice and had become China′s largest staple food. (2) China′s main grain production areas were mainly concentrated in the eastern region. From 2008 to 2018, the grain planting area of various provinces (cities and autonomous regions) showed different trends. Among them, Beijing, Tianjin and other 10 (cities and autonomous regions) all had a decrease in planting area of more than 30%. The change was minor. Relative to the planting area, the output of most provinces (cities and autonomous regions) had increased by a large percentage, especially in the main producing areas. (3) The grain output per region of the country showed an obvious increasing trend, the main grain production areas were more obvious, and the spatial distribution had changed less. There was a significant positive correlation between grain output per province in the country, and the spatial spillover effect was obvious. On the basis of stabilizing the grain planting area, raising the yield level is still an important measure to ensure the food security of China in the new period.