江苏省蔬菜生产比较优势的时空变化分析

SPATIAL TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF VEGETABLE PRODUCTION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

关键词:  江苏省蔬菜比较优势 GIS空间自相关

Key words:  Jiangsu  vegetable  comparative advantage  GIS  space self correlation

摘要:

［目的］基于近15年的江苏省农业统计资料，分析江苏省蔬菜生产比较优势的空间异质性以及历史演变规律，为蔬菜产业结构优化及农业结构调整提供决策依据。［方法］采用生产规模优势指数、生产效率优势指数、综合比较优势指数测算蔬菜生产比较优势。利用GIS技术对农作物比较优势进行空间异质性分析。［结果］（1）近年来江苏省蔬菜生产综合比较优势指数最高的4个市从高到低为徐州市、苏州市、南京市、无锡市，最低的4个市从低到高为淮安市、镇江市、扬州市、泰州市； （2）空间自相关分析发现，江苏省蔬菜生产综合比较优势属于空间随机分布； “高高”型的高值聚集区包括丰县、沛县、大丰区、东台市、无锡市区、苏州市区、吴中区，“低低”型的低值聚集区包括宝应县、高邮市、金湖县； （3）近15年来江苏省蔬菜生产综合比较优势指数的空间分布格局变化不大； 与2002年相比，2017年苏南地区的蔬菜生产综合比较优势指数整体提升幅度较大，苏北地区、苏中地区的大部分地区的综合比较优势指数则有不同程度下降。［结论］建议江苏省苏北地区蔬菜生产的侧重点是规模化，重点布局徐州市蔬菜产区，并在宿迁市、盐城市适当发展蔬菜产业； 二是苏南地区蔬菜生产的侧重点是精品化，重点布局南京市、苏州市、无锡市蔬菜产业； 苏中地区蔬菜生产的侧重点是特色化，南通市要衔接好上海市的蔬菜市场，扬州市、泰州市重点发展具有当地特色的水生类蔬菜。

Abstract:

Based on the agricultural statistical data of Jiangsu province in the recent 15 years, this research aims to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and the evolution rules of comparative advantage of vegetable production in Jiangsu province, so as to provide a decision basis for adjusting the vegetable industrial structure. The production scale index, production efficiency advantage index, and the aggregated comparative advantage index were used to evaluate the comparative advantage of vegetable production, then the GIS was used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of vegetable comparative advantage. The results were found as follows. (1) In recent years, the four cities with the highest aggregated comparative advantage index (AAI) of vegetable production in Jiangsu province were Xuzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi, while the four cities with the lowest AAI were Huai′an, Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, and Taizhou. (2) The spatial self correlation analysis showed that the aggregated comparative advantage of vegetable production in Jiangsu province belonged to spatial random distribution: The high value "HH" cluster included Feng county, Pei county, Dafeng district, Dongtai city, Wuxi city, Suzhou city, and Wuzhong district, while the low value "LL" cluster included Baoying county, Gaoyou city, and Jinhu county. (3) The spatial distribution pattern of vegetable production AAI in Jiangsu province had changed slightly in recent 15 years. Compared with the situation in 2002, the overall AAI of vegetable production in southern Jiangsu province increased greatly in 2017. However, the AAI in most areas of northern and central Jiangsu decreased to varying degrees. In summary, the vegetable production in northern Jiangsu province should focus on large scale production, emphasizing the vegetable production in Xuzhou while properly developing the vegetable industry in Suqian and Yancheng. The vegetable production in the southern Jiangsu province should focus on high quality products, emphasizing the vegetable industry in Nanjing, Suzhou, and Wuxi. In the central area of Jiangsu province, the key point of vegetable production should be on special vegetables; Nantong should be the most important city connecting with the vegetable market in Shanghai, while Yangzhou and Taizhou prioritizing the development of local special aquatic vegetables.