新疆棉花生产时空变动的耕地利用效应分解

STUDY ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGE OF COTTON PRODUCTION IN XINJIANG FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF UTILIZATION EFFECT OF CULTIVATED LAND

关键词:  新疆棉花耕地利用效应LMDI空间转移指数

Key words:  Xinjiang  cotton  cultivated land use rffect  LMDI  spatial transfer index

摘要:

［目的］从耕地利用效应的角度，科学认识耕地利用对新疆棉花生产时空变动的作用。［方法］运用LMDI和空间转移指数法，对1999—2017年新疆棉花生产时空变动进行测算。［结果］1999—2017年耕地利用对新疆棉花生产变动作用由大到小排序为：强度效应>结构效应>规模效应>程度效应； 流通体制改革后到加入WTO以前起主导作用的是程度效应，加入WTO以后到临时收储政策以前起主导作用的是结构效应，临时收储政策阶段和目标价格补贴阶段起主导作用的是强度效应； 新疆12个地州（市）棉花生产转出区为吐鲁番地区和和田地区，其他地州均为转入区； 克拉玛依市、吐鲁番市、哈密市、昌吉回族自治州、伊犁州直属县（市）、塔城地区为结构效应驱动； 博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州、阿克苏地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州、喀什地区、和田地区为强度效应驱动。［结论］流通体制改革以后新疆棉花生产主要驱动力为单位面积产量的提高，不同阶段各分解效应的对棉花生产变化的影响存在一定的差异性； 不同地州的棉花生产时空变化的驱动效应存在一定的差异性。

Abstract:

To scientifically understand the temporal and spatial variation of cotton production in Xinjiang from the perspective of the effect of cultivated land use. Using LMDI and spatial transfer index method, the spatial and temporal changes of cotton production in Xinjiang from 1999 to 2016 were measured and calculated. From 1999 to 2017, the effect of arable land utilization on cotton production in Xinjiang was ranked as follows: intensity effect > structure effect > scale effect > degree effect; degree effect played a dominant role from the reform of circulation system to the entry of WTO; structure effect played a dominant role from the entry of WTO to the temporary storage policy; temporary storage policy stage and target price subsidy stage played a dominant role. The leading role is intensity effect in the stage of temporary collection and storage policy and target price subsidy. The transfer out areas of cotton production in 12 prefectures (cities) of Xinjiang were Turpan a and Hetian region, and other prefectures were all transfer in areas; Karamay city, Turpan city, Hami city, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, directly under Yili Prefecture (city), Tacheng area were driven by structural effect; Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Bayinguoling Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Aksu area, Kizilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, Kashgar region and Hotan region were driven by intensity effect. After the reform of circulation system, the main driving force of cotton production in Xinjiang is the increase of cotton yield per unit area. The influence of decomposition effect on cotton production varies in different stages, and the driving effect of cotton production varies in different regions and states.