化肥施用量对苹果种植经济效益影响的实证研究

EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF APPLE PLANTING

关键词:  苹果化肥减施增效生产成本经济收益回归分析

Key words:  apple  cost of production  consumption of chemical fertilizers  economic benefit  regression analysis

摘要:

［目的］我国苹果主产区苹果产量的增加严重依赖化肥施用，苹果生产过程中化肥过量使用问题较为严重，造成农业面源污染。目前，国家政策倡导，要在农户可接受的情况下，在苹果主产区推进化肥减施工程，实现苹果生产化肥减施增效的目标。为此，厘清化肥使用量对苹果价格、果农种植收入的影响机制显得尤为重要。［方法］文章利用1991—2017年我国苹果种植成本收益资料，分析了化肥施用量与苹果价格、种植苹果净利润之间的关系，化肥价格变化与农户化肥选择行为的关系，并运用最小二乘回归和Granger因果检验分析方法，分析各变量之间的影响机理。［结果］苹果产量增长的同时，生产成本也呈现出稳定增长的态势。从成本构成变动趋势来看，2013年后总成本略有下降，而生产人工成本持续增加，并于2011年起成为成本支出中占比最大的一项。化肥施肥量先增后减，2014年后逐年递减，农户选用复合元素肥代替单一元素肥成为一种趋势。化肥施用量对苹果价格具有正向作用，原因是化肥施用量会影响苹果果实口感和品质。化肥施用量对苹果生产净利润的影响存在一个阈值，即58984 kg/hm2，当施肥量小于此值时，化肥施肥量与苹果生产净利润呈负向关系，大于此值时，则呈正向关系。［结论］化肥减施的最小值应不低于71212 kg/hm2，在保障苹果产量的前提下，减轻环境负担。培养农户环保种植意识，提升化肥使用效率，延伸苹果产业价值链，加大苹果种植区减肥示范农业补贴力度，建立完善农业保险机制，加大全方位多角度保障果农经济收益，推进苹果化肥减施增效。

Abstract:

There are growing number of problems about apple planting in China′s main production areas. On the one hand, excessive use of chemical fertilizer causes non point source pollution in agriculture, on the other hand, the increase of apple production in China relies heavily on chemical fertilizer application. The national policy advocates that the fertilizer reduction project should be promoted in the main producing areas of apples under the condition that farmers can accept it, so as to achieve the goal of reducing fertilizer application and increase apple production. Therefore, it is particularly important to clarify the influence mechanism of fertilizer use on the price of apples and the income of fruit farmers. This paper analyzed the correlation between fertilizer application amount and apple price and net profit of apple planting, and the relationship between fertilizer price change and farmers′ fertilizer selection behavior, based on the data of apple planting cost and income in China from 1991 to 2017. At the same time, this paper used ordinary least square regression (OLS) and Granger causality test to analyze the influence mechanism between variables. The results showed that the production cost increases steadily with the increase of apple production. From the perspective of the changing trend of cost composition, the total cost decreased slightly after 2013, while the production labor cost continued to increase, and became the largest item in the cost expenditure from 2011. The amount of fertilizer increased first and then decreased, and decreased year by year after 2014. It had become a trend that farmers chose compound element fertilizer instead of single element fertilizer. The amount of fertilizer application had a positive effect on the price of apples, because it would affect the taste and quality of apple fruits. There was a threshold value for the effect of fertilizer amount on the profit of apple production. When the fertilizer amount was less than this value, the fertilizer amount had a negative relationship with the net profit of apple production; otherwise, it had a positive relationship. In summary, the minimum application amount of fertilizer, namely 712.12 kg/hm^2, is calculated in this paper to ensure the increase of farmers′ income from apple planting. So, we should cultivate farmers′ awareness of environmental protection, improve the use efficiency of chemical fertilizer, extend the value chain of apple industry, increase the agricultural subsidies for the farmer who reduces fertilizer application in apple planting areas, establish and improve the agricultural insurance mechanism, increase the economic benefits of fruit growers from all aspects, and promote the reduction and efficiency of apple chemical fertilizer.