畜牧产业结构变动对我国粮食安全的影响分析

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY STRUCTURE CHANGE ON CHINA′S FOOD SECURITY

关键词:  畜牧业产业结构结构变动粮食安全关联度

Key words:  livestock industry  industrial structure  structural change  food security  correlation

摘要:

［目的］改革开放40多年来，我国畜牧产业结构不断调整和优化，其生产供给结构与消费需求结构的变动与我国粮食安全问题息息相关。［方法］文章基于改革开放40多年来畜牧产业发展历程，从供给与需求两个维度分析我国畜牧产业结构变动的特征，并进一步探究畜牧产业结构变动与我国粮食安全间的作用机理，最后运用灰色关联度分析法实证其关联影响度。［结果］我国畜牧产业结构由耗粮型为主向节粮型转变，畜产品供给结构趋于合理，但不同区域间存在较大差异； 我国居民对畜产品消费需求量增加，但城乡居民畜产品消费结构及变动存在一定差异性； 畜牧产业结构变动与粮食安全有重要联系，畜牧业发展同保障国家粮食安全并不矛盾，畜牧产业结构变动主要通过耕地、基于口粮替代的食物需求结构变化及饲料粮需求3个方面作用于粮食安全； 具体来看，粮食播种面积、耗粮型畜产品比重和耗粮型畜产品饲料转化率对粮食安全水平的关联影响较大，节粮型畜产品比重与节粮型畜产品饲料转化率对粮食安全水平的关联影响小于耗粮型畜产品的影响。［结论］不断提高不同畜产品的饲料转化率，加大非粮型饲料资源开发利用度，推广非粮饲料应用技术，加快畜牧产业转型升级，满足消费者需求和保障国家粮食安全。

Abstract:

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the structure of China′s livestock industry has been continuously adjusted and optimized. And changes in the supply structure and consumption demand structure are closely related to food security. Based on the development of livestock industry in the past 40 years of reform and opening up, this paper analyzed the characteristics of the changes from the dimensions of supply and demand. And further explored the mechanism between the changes of livestock industry structure and food security. Finally the gray correlation method was used to verify the influence of the correlation. The results showed that the structure of livestock industry had shifted from grain consuming to grain saving, and the supply structure of livestock products tended to be reasonable. The demand of livestock products had increased, but there were large differences among different regions. Changes in livestock industry structure were closely related to food security. And there was no contradiction between the development of livestock industry and the guarantee of national food security. The changes in the structure of livestock industry mainly affected food security through three aspects: arable land, changes in the structure of food demand based on ration substitution and the demand for feedstuffs. Specifically, the grain sown area, the proportion of grain consuming livestock products and the feed conversion ratio of grain consuming livestock products had a greater impact on the level of food security. And the proportion of grain saving livestock products and the feed conversion rate of grain saving livestock products had a smaller influence than that of grain consuming livestock products. In summary, it′s necessary to continuously improve the feed conversion rate of different livestock products, increase the development and utilization of non grain feed resources, promote non grain feed application technology, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the livestock industry, meet consumer demand and ensure national food security.