基于LMDI的三江平原地区粮食增产影响因素研究

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN YIELD INCREASE IN SANJIANG PLAIN BASED ON LMDI MODEL

关键词:  粮食增产LMDI模型粮食播种面积粮食单产三江平原

Key words:  grain yield increase  LMDI model  grain sown area  grain yield  Sanjiang Plain

摘要:

［目的］分析三江平原地区粮食产量“十二连增”的贡献因素，为实现持续稳产高产目标提供决策依据。［方法］运用对数平均迪氏分解模型（LMDI），基于粮食播种面积、粮食单产两个视角，对2003—2015年三江平原地区23个县域尺度的粮食增产因素进行分解。［结果］从增产格局看，三江平原东部、北部地区增产效果优于西部、南部，且水稻增产最显著，玉米次之，大豆产量呈下降趋势； 从增产总效应看，粮食播种面积和单产均呈现正向效应，但单产效应贡献量不足播种面积效应贡献量的1/3； 从分作物分效应看，播种面积效应与单产效应的贡献量均为水稻>玉米>大豆，大豆播种面积累积效应为负值。［结论］研究区粮食生产的“十二连增”是以播种面积扩大为主的外延式增产。今后在稳定粮食播种面积的同时，加强优质高产作物品种的培育、发展精准农业、进一步提高作物单产，才是保障三江平原地区粮食增产的关键。

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze the contributing factors of "twelve consecutive increases" in grain yield in Sanjiang Plain, so as to provide decision making basis for achieving the goal of sustainable, stable and high yield. Based on the two perspectives of grain sowing area and grain yield per unit area, the influencing factors of grain yield increase at 23 counties in Sanjiang Plain from 2003 to 2015 were decomposed by Logarithmic Mean Weigh Division Index Method (LMDI). From the perspective of yield increase pattern, the yield increase in the eastern counties was better than that in the west, and the north was better than the south. The yield increase of rice was the most significant, followed by maize, and the yield of soybean showed a downward trend. From the perspective of the total effect of yield increase, the planting area and yield of grain had positive effects, but the contribution value of grain yield was less than one third of the contribution of planting area effect. From the perspective of different effects on different crops, the contribution of planting area effect and yielding effect was rice > corn > soybean, and the cumulative effect of soybean planting area was negative. It concludes that the grain yield increase in the study area is actually mainly the extension of the planting area. In the future, while stabilizing the grain planting area, strengthening the cultivation of high quality and high yield crop varieties and developing precision agriculture are the keys to ensuring the increase of grain production.