我国粮食生产与经济发展耦合协调性的时空演变

SPATIAL TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF COUPLING COORDINATION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食生产经济发展时空演变耦合协调性中国

Key words:  grain production  economic development  spatial temporal evolution  coupling coordination  China

摘要:

［目的］文章构建粮食生产与经济发展系统评价指标体系，分析两者之间的关联机制和耦合协调性，以期为更好地协调粮食生产和经济发展提供科学参考。［方法］运用灰色关联分析和耦合协调度模型揭示2000—2016年我国粮食生产与经济发展的关联机制及两者耦合协调状况的省域时空演变特征。［结果］（1）我国粮食生产与经济发展的灰色关联度高，相对于粮食生产条件禀赋而言，产出效率对经济发展的支撑作用更大。（2）2000—2016年我国粮食生产条件禀赋、粮食生产系统和经济发展的耦合度均可划分为2000—2004年的快速下降和2005—2016年的3阶变化2个阶段，但粮食产出效率与经济发展的耦合度则呈现出持续下降的变化特征。（3）粮食生产条件禀赋与经济发展耦合度的高值区和较高值区在中西部地区集聚，而较低值区和低值区呈现出由分散向沿海地区呈长带状集聚的空间分布特征。（4）粮食产出效率与经济发展耦合度呈现出高值区和较高值区的集聚区域逐步西移且范围不断缩小，较低区和低值区范围逐步向沿海集聚且范围不断扩大的变化特征。（5）粮食生产与经济发展的低水平协调省区数量由6个减少到3个，呈现出由在西部集聚向全国分散转变的空间格局； 拮抗型省区数量稳定在8~9个，呈现出由分散向沿海呈长带状集聚的分布特征； 磨合型省区数量由14个增加到18个，呈现出在中西部集聚并明显向西偏移的空间变化特征。［结论］我国应强化农业技术进步和农业基础设施建设，科学合理地施肥用药； 明确主要矛盾，因地施策，推进粮食生产和经济发展水平的协同提升。

Abstract:

In order to better coordinating the development of grain production system and economic development system, this paper constructs a multiple evaluation index of the two systems and analyzes their correlation mechanism and coupling coordination. By using gray correlation analysis and coupling coordination model, this paper revealed the correlation mechanism and spatial temporal evolution characteristics of China′s provincial coupling coordination between grain production system and economic development system from 2000 to 2016. The results were showed as follows.①There were a high grey correlation between grain production condition & endowment (GPCE) and economic development in China, however grain output efficiency was much closer related with economic development than GPCE. ②From 2000 to 2016, the changing trend of the coupling degree between GPCE, grain production system and economic development system could be divided into the rapid decreasing stage from 2000 to 2004 and the three step changing stage from 2005 to 2016; while to the coupling degree between grain production efficiency and economic development, it showed a continuous decreasing trend during the study period. ③The areas with high and relatively high coupling value between GPCE and economic development were concentrated in central and western regions in China, while the relatively low and low coupling value areas changed from a scattered distribution to a long stripped distribution agglomerating along the coastal areas. ④The agglomeration areas with high and relatively high coupling value between grain production efficiency and economic development gradually shrank and moved westward, while the relatively low and low coupling value areas gradually expanded and agglomerated toward the coastal areas. ⑤The number of provinces with low coupling coordination between grain production system and economic development system decreased from 6 to 3, and changed from an agglomerated distribution in west toward an scattered distribution around the country; The number of provinces with antergic coupling coordination type stabilized at 8 or 9, and changed from scattered distribution toward a long stripped agglomerated distribution along the coastal areas; While the number of provinces with ameliorated coupling coordination type increased from 14 to 18, and showed an agglomerated distribution in central and west, obviously moving to the west. In summary, in order to improve the coordination degree between grain production system and economic development system, China should propel agricultural technology and strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure, apply chemical fertilizers and pesticides scientifically and rationally, and implement regional policies based on provincial main contradictions.