甘肃省现代农业与县域经济协调发展的时空特征

SPATIAL TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN MODERN AGRICULTURE AND COUNTY ECONOMY IN GANSU PROVINCE

关键词:  现代农业县域经济耦合度协调度甘肃省

Key words:  modern agriculture  county economy  coupling degree  coordination degree  Gansu province

摘要:

［目的］通过测度甘肃省各县域现代农业与经济发展水平协调发展度，分析两者的相互作用关系及其时空耦合协同关系，为促进区域农业和农村经济可持续发展提供科学决策依据。［方法］运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关等方法考察2002—2016年甘肃省现代农业与县域经济耦合协调发展的时空特征。［结果］2002—2016年甘肃省现代农业发展水平均值分别为0238 6、0243 6和0243 7，标准差分别为0118 6、0121 2和0114 7； 县域经济发展水平均值分别为0152 9、0124 4和0243 7，标准差分别为0185 1、0142 9和0144 6。现代农业与县域经济协调发展度均值分别为0335 9、0316 0和0353 6，标准差分别为0168 3、0158 5和0141 1； 县域尺度的协调发展度平均值介于0316 0~0353 6，河西地区的波动幅度大于陇东、陇南地区。2002年、2008年、2016年3个年份的协调发展度Global Moran′s I值均为正值，全局冷热点区和局部冷热点区同步变动程度不大。［结论］甘肃省现代农业发展水平与县域经济发展水平均呈现“西北—东南”阶梯式降低特征，且时空分异明显，河西地区现代农业与县域经济发展水平优势明显，陇东、陇南地区水平最小。甘肃省现代农业与县域经济的协调程度整体水平不高，协调发展度时空分异显著，基本形成了以河西地区高水平的集聚区和陇南地区的低水平集聚区，陇东地区零星分布有较高水平县域单元； 协调发展成长空间呈现与协调发展度相反的分布格局，协调发展度越高的县域其协调度成长幅度却小； 协调发展度存在正的空间自相关性，冷热点分布呈现出北热南冷的空间发展格局，热点区空间结构复杂，辐射范围大致呈现沿河西走廊的条带状分布，冷点区空间分布呈现圈层扩散过程，主要呈现以陇南为中心向周边县域扩散的团块状分布。

Abstract:

By measuring the coordinated development degree of modern agriculture and economic development level in different counties of Gansu province, this paper analyzes the interaction and spatiotemporal coupling relationship between them, so as to provide scientific decision making basis for promoting the sustainable development of regional agriculture and rural economy. The coupling coordination model and spatial autocorrelation were used to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupling and coordinated development of modern agriculture and county economic development in Gansu province from 2002 to 2016. The results were indicated as follows. From 2002 to 2016, the average development level of modern agriculture in Gansu province was 0.238 6, 0.243 6 and 0.243 7, and the standard deviation was 0.118 6, 0.121 2 and 0.114 7. The average level of county economic development was 0.152 9, 0.124 4 and 0.243 7, and the standard deviation was 0.185 1, 0.142 9 and 0.144 6. The average degree of coordinated development of modern agriculture and county economy was 0.335 9, 0.316 0 and 0.353 6, and the standard deviation was 0.168 3, 0.158 5, and 0.141 1. The average coordinated development degree of county scale was between 0.316 0 and 0.353 6, and the fluctuation range of Hexi region was greater than that of Longdong and Longnan regions. The Global Moran′s I values of coordinated development were all positive in 2002, 2008 and 2016, and the global and local cold hot spots had little synchronous change. Both the development level of modern agriculture in Gansu province and the development level of county economy characterizes by "northwest southeast" step by step reduction, and the spatial and temporal differences are obvious. The level of modern agriculture and county economy in Hexi region has obvious advantages, and the level of Longdong and Longnan area is the lowest. The overall level of coordination between modern agriculture and county economy in Gansu province is not high, and the spatial and temporal differences of coordinated development degree are significant. The high level cluster area in Hexi region and the low level cluster area in Longnan area are basically formed. There are also high level county units scattered in Longdong area. The growth space of coordinated development presents a distribution pattern opposite to the coordinated development degree. The higher the degree of coordinated development is, the smaller the growth rate of coordinated development is. There is a positive spatial autocorrelation in the coordinated development degree. The distribution of cold and hot spots shows a spatial development pattern of hot spots in the north and cold in the south. The spatial structure of the hot spots is complex, and the radiation range is roughly strip shaped along the Hexi corridor. The spatial distribution of the cold spot area presents a circle diffusion process, which is mainly in the form of clumps spreading from Longnan to the surrounding counties.