人口老龄化对农业技术进步的影响机制分析基于DEA-Malmquist的技术评价与动态面板模型

ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF POPULATION AGING ON AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

关键词:  人口老龄化  农业技术进步  影响机制  动态面板  劳动效率

Key words:  population aging  agricultural technological progress  influencing mechanism  dynastic panel  efficiency of labor

摘要:

目的 在老龄化程度加深以及农业生产对农业技术创新日渐倚重的背景下，研究人口老龄化对农业技术进步的影响问题，对于促进农业生产、实现乡村振兴和农业现代化具有重要的现实意义。方法 文章基于2001—2016年全国省级面板数据，首先测算了各省市的农业技术进步率，接着通过动态面板模型系统性地分析了人口老龄化对农业技术进步的影响机制。结果 人口老龄化对农业技术进步具有两种对立效应，其中人口老龄化通过“人力资本效应”和“劳动效率效应”显著地提升了农业技术进步，但通过“老龄负担效应”挤占农业生产资源，却阻碍了农业技术进步。结论 （1）人口老龄化对农业技术进步既是机遇也是挑战，应该进一步发挥老年人人力资本的“溢出效应”，开展相应的生产培训班，聘请高水平老年人传授生产经验 ；（2）发展专业化、集约化、组织化相结合的新型农业生产模式，以制度红利及专业化经营来弥补农村“两化”背景下劳动效率的损失；（3）统筹规划平衡好养老金账户和农业研发资金账户，加快实现农业技术进步。

Abstract:

Under the background of deepening the aging degree and increasing dependence of agricultural production on agricultural technological innovation, it has great practical significance to study the influence of population aging on the progress of agricultural technology. Based on the 2001-2016 National Provincial panel data, this paper calculated the agricultural technology progress rates, and systematically analyzed the impact of population aging on agricultural technological progress through dynamic panel model. The results showed that population aging had two opposing effects on agricultural technological progress, among which population aging had significantly enhanced agricultural technological progress through "human capital effect" and "labor efficiency effect", but crowding out agricultural production resources through "aging burden effect" had hindered the progress of agricultural technology. In the present, we should further give full play to the "spillover effect" of the human capital of the elderly, carry out the corresponding production training courses, and hire high-level elderly people to explain their planting experience. At the same time, the further development of applicable agricultural production equipment to realize the specialization and scale of land management. Finally, we should coordinate the planning of balanced pension accounts and agricultural accounts to accelerate the realization of agricultural technological progress.