山西省农牧交错区农户饲草种植意愿及影响因素分析基于Logistic 模型和两县区的调查

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING FARMERS′ WILLINGNESS OF PLANTING FORAGE IN AGRI-PASTURE ECTONE OF SHANXI PROVINCE*——BASED ON LOGISTIC MODEL AND SURVEYS OF 2 COUNTIES

关键词:  农户  “粮改饲”  Logistic模型  饲草种植意愿  影响因素

Key words:  farmers  "changing grain to feed"  Logistic model  willingness of planting forage  influencing factors

摘要:

目的 在我国“粮改饲”背景下，山西省农牧交错区农户是否会改变传统作物而选择种植饲草作物的行为决策会受到诸多因素的影响，文章试图从影响农户饲草种植意愿因素的角度入手，探究增强农户饲草种植积极性的对策和措施。方法 该文以山西省朔州市右玉县和平鲁区为例，基于两县（区）232个样本农户的调查数据，采用Logistic回归模型对农户种植饲草意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果 在所有影响农户饲草种植意愿的因素中，关键性因素是农户的受教育水平、农户对风险的偏好、生产经营的形式、种植饲草的收入、是否受到相应的技术指导、饲草的销售情况、农户对饲草价格的满意度以及对相关政策的知晓度。结论 该文认为应重视有创新精神的新型职业农民的培育；通过多种形式的土地流转，实现土地的适度规模经营，获得规模收益；重视合作社的带动和引导作用，增加饲草种植的组织化程度，降低市场风险和交易成本，提高农户的收入；做好市场调查和预测，以市场倒逼生产，实现饲草市场供需的有效衔接；多渠道加大宣传力度提高农户对政策的知晓度；以此提高农户种植饲草的积极性、促进“粮改饲”政策的顺利实施，实现“粮草兼顾、草畜平衡、农牧结合、循环发展” 的目标。

Abstract:

Under the background of "changing grain to feed" policy in China, the behavior decision whether the farmers change their traditional crops and choose to plant forage will be affected by many factors in agro-pasture ecotone of Shanxi province. This study attempts to explore the measures and recommendations to enhance the farmers′ enthusiasm of planting forage from the perspective of factors affecting their willingness. Taking Youyu county and Pinglu District in Shuozhou city, Shanxi province as an example, based on the survey data from 232 households, using Logistic regression model, this study made an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the farmers' willingness of planting forage. The results showed that among all of the influencing factors of the farmers' willingness of planting forage, the key influencing factors included the farmers' education level, their preference for risk, the form of production and operation, income from planting forage, whether they receiving appropriate technical guidance, sales situation of forage, farmers' satisfaction with forage price and their awareness of relevant policies. In summary, This study suggests that attention should be paid to the cultivation of new professional farmers with innovative spirit; realize the moderate scale operation of the land through various forms of land circulation to obtain scale benefits; attach great importance to the guiding and driving role of the cooperatives and increase the degree of organization of planting forage to reduce market risks and transaction costs to improve farmers' incomes; make the accurate market investigation and forecast and force production with the market to realize the effective connection between forage market supply and demand; increase publicity efforts through multiple channels to improve farmers' awareness of the policy. In this way, the enthusiasm of farmers to plant forage can be improved, the smooth implementation of the policy of "changing grain to feed" can be promoted, and the goal of taking both grain and grass into consideration, balancing grass and livestock, combining agriculture and animal husbandry, and circular development can be realized.