西北民族地区产业结构变迁的减贫效应模型分析

MODEL ANALYSIS ON POVERTY REDUCTION EFFECT OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE CHANGE IN NORTHWEST ETHNIC AREAS

关键词:  民族地区  产业结构变迁  相对贫困  农民人均纯收入

Key words:  ethnic areas  changes in industrial structure  relative poverty  per capita net income of farmers

摘要:

目的 随着我国社会经济发展进入新时代，在新的发展理念下解决相对贫困和区域深度贫困问题成为扶贫工作重点。在此背景下，探讨产业结构变迁对缓解民族地区相对贫困的影响，具有重要的理论与现实意义。方法 文章以“相对农民人均纯收入增长率”作为相对贫困的表征指标，对2006—2014年西北民族地区61个国家级扶贫重点县相对贫困变动情况进行了测算。在此基础上，利用面板数据，对产业结构变迁整体效应进行逐步回归分析，并通过构建工具变量对回归结果进行稳健性检验。结果 西北民族地区的经济增长主要依靠第二产业的快速发展，虽然所有地区都表现出第二产业的不足或定位不高的现象，但是对于拉动整体经济和构建产业链仍然具有不可替代的作用。受传统因素的影响，第二产业的从业人员数量很少，大量从业人员仍然集中于第一产业。结论 由于扶贫体制机制存在的问题，贫困人口由第二产业发展的直接获益有限。贫困人口的主要获益方式仍然是政府主导的国民收入再配，所以财政支出对于贫困变动始终具有明显的正向效应。做好西北民族地区的扶贫工作，应当加大扶贫政策的倾斜力度，加强扶贫对象和措施的精准性，着重智力扶贫和技能扶贫措施。

Abstract:

With China's socio-economic development entering a new era, under the new economic development concept, how to solve the problem of relative poverty and regional deep poverty has become a key content of poverty alleviation work. Under the above background, it has an important theoretical value and practical significance to discuss on the impact of industrial structure change on relative poverty alleviation in ethnic areas. Firstly, the paper used the index of "relative per capita net income growth rate of farmers" as the indicator to measure relative poverty, and calculated the changes of relative poverty which was in the 61 key counties of poverty alleviation at the national level in northwest minority areas from 2006 to 2014. On this basis, it made a regression analysis systematically about the overall effect of the industrial structure change, and during constructing a tool variable to test the result of regression analysis. Poverty reduction before 2012 was not as effective as that after 2012. The results were showed as follows. The economic growth of the Northwest minority areas mainly depended on the rapid development of the secondary industry. Although there were some shortcomings or low positioning of the secondary industry in all regions, it still played an irreplaceable role in stimulating the overall economy and building the industrial chain. Because of the influence of traditional factors, the number of practitioners in the secondary industry was very small, and a large number of practitioners were still concentrated in the primary industry. In summary, due to the existing problems in the system and mechanism of poverty alleviation, the direct benefit of the poor from the development of the secondary industry is limited. The main way for the poor to benefit is still the government-led redistribution of national income, so fiscal expenditure has always a significant positive effect on the change of poverty. In order to do a good job in poverty alleviation in the northwest minority areas, we should increase the inclination of poverty alleviation policies, strengthen the accuracy of poverty alleviation targets and measures, and focus on intellectual poverty alleviation and skills poverty alleviation measures.