国内外玉米价格传导关系影响研究基于收购政策市场化改革背景

RESEARCH ON THE INFLUENCES OF MAIZE PRICE TRANSMISSION RELATIONS AT HOME AND ABROAD*——BASED ON THE BACKGROUND OF MARKETIZATION REFORM OF ACQUISITION POLICY

关键词:  玉米  收购政策市场化改革  价格传导  非对称性  门限向量误差修正模型

Key words:  maize  marketization reform of acquisition policy  price conduction  asymmetry  threshold vector error correction model

摘要:

目的 玉米在国家粮食安全中占有重要地位，是国内外市场联系最为紧密的大宗农产品之一。文章旨在探讨收购政策市场化改革前后，国内外玉米价格传导关系是否发生变化，为政府推进玉米供给侧改革提供理论依据。方法 该文选取2009—2018年国内外玉米价格周度数据，利用向量误差修正模型和门限向量误差修正模型分别对收购政策市场化改革前后国内外玉米市场间价格传导关系进行实证分析。结果 长期内，国内外玉米价格存在长期稳定的均衡关系，国际玉米价格对国内玉米价格具有持续稳定的正向传导关系；短期内，收购政策市场化改革前，国内外玉米价格间存在线性调整关系，具体表现为国际玉米价格向国内玉米价格单向传导关系；而收购政策市场化改革后，国内外玉米价格短期非均衡误差调整动态存在门限非对称调整关系，且改革后未来国内玉米价格受到当期国内玉米价格影响较大。结论 这些结论对推进玉米供给侧改革，维护国内玉米市场的健康有序发展有一定的参考作用。

Abstract:

Maize not only plays an important role in national food security, but also is one of the most closely linked agricultural products in the domestic and foreign markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether the price transmission relationship between domestic and foreign maize prices has changed before and after the market-oriented reform of the purchase policy, and to provide a theoretical basis for the government to promote the reform of maize supply side. Based on the weekly data of domestic and national maize prices from 2009 to 2018, this paper used vector error correction model and threshold vector error correction model to empirically analyze the price transmission relationship between domestic and foreign maize markets before and after the market-oriented reform of purchasing policy. The results showed that there was a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between domestic and foreign maize prices in the long run, and the international maize prices had a sustained and stable positive transmission relationship with domestic maize prices. In the short term, before the market-oriented reform of the acquisition policy, there was a linear adjustment relationship between domestic and foreign maize prices, which was manifested in the one-way transmission relationship between international maize prices and domestic maize prices. After the market-oriented reform of purchasing policy, there was a threshold asymmetric adjustment relationship between short-term unbalanced error adjustment dynamics of maize prices at home and abroad, and the domestic maize prices would be greatly affected by the current domestic maize prices in the future after the reform. Therefore, when pushing forward the reform of maize supply side, we should fully consider the asymmetry of domestic and international maize price transmission, and maintain the healthy and orderly development of the domestic maize market. These conclusions can be used as a reference for promoting maize supply-side reform and maintaining the healthy and orderly development of domestic maize market.