养羊（场）户品种改良技术采纳意愿影响因素分析基于13省477份调研问卷数据

ANALYSIS ON FACTORS INFLUENCING SHEEP HOUSEHOLDS’ WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT THE BREED IMPROVEMENT TECHNBOLOGY——Based on 477 questionnaires from 13 provinces

关键词:  肉羊产业  品种改良技术  采纳意愿  影响因素  多元有序Logit模型

Key words:  mutton sheep industry  breed improvement technology  willingness to accept  influencing factors  Multinomial Ordinal Logit Model

摘要:

目的 基于全国13省477份问卷数据，对我国养羊（场）户品种改良技术采纳意愿影响因素进行分析。方法 文章运用多元有序Logit模型，选取决策者自身特征、生产经营特征、组织特征、环境特征、认知与预期特征共4类17个变量，分析其对养羊（场）户品种改良技术采纳意愿的影响。结果 17个变量中，受访者的年龄、养殖年限、社会网络关系、获取信息难度、对自家目前肉羊品种改良技术改进必要性认知、对品种改良技术风险认知、规模扩大预期以及政府政策等变量对其品种改良技术采纳意愿具有显著影响。结论 首先政府应加大对养羊（场）户品种改良技术采纳补贴资金或政策扶持力度，降低其技术采纳成本和风险；其次技术推广部门应集中在某一地区进行合理的技术推广布局，激活其社会网络内部的信息传播机制，降低养羊（场）户获取信息难度；然后推广技术的同时，尽量告知养羊（场）户改良后品种在饲养管理等方面需要注意的问题，帮助其降低风险；最后多渠道推动我国肉羊产业规模化发展，提高其整体的品种改良技术采纳能力及风险抵御能力。

Abstract:

Based on 477 questionnaires from 13 provinces, using Multinomial Ordinal Logit Model, this paper analyzed the factors influencing sheep households' willingness to accept the breed improvement technology in China. The results showed that policymakers' age, years of improving breed, social network relations, difficulty in obtaining information, recognition of the need to improve their breed improvement technology, recognition of the risks of breed improvement technology, expectation of scale expansion, and government policies had a significant impact on his or her willingness to accept the breed improvement technology. So we suggest that firstly the government should increase the financial subsidy or policy support for sheep households' adoption of breed improvement technology to reduce their cost and risk. Secondly, technical promotion department should focus on the rational distribution of technology in a certain area and activate the information dissemination mechanism within its social network, to reduce the difficulty of sheep households to obtain information about breed improvement technology. Then, while promoting the technology, we should try our best to inform the sheep households about some noticeable issues about improved breed management to help them reduce risks. Finally, promote the large-scale development of the sheep and goat industry in China through multiple channels to improve its overall breed improvement technology adoption ability and risk resistance ability.