收入分布、户籍地差异与城镇居民牛肉消费基于广义双栏模型的实证研究

INCOME DISTRIBUTION, HOUSEHOLD REGISTRATION DIFFERENCE AND BEEF CONSUMPTION IN URBAN CHINA*——AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON THE GENERALIZED DOUBLE-HURDLE MODEL

关键词:  牛肉消费  收入分布  户籍地差异  广义双栏模型  中国城镇

Key words:  beef consumption  income distribution  household registration difference  generalized double-hurdle model  urban China

摘要:

目的 我国社会经济发展已进入追求高质量增长模式的新时代，以牛肉为代表的优质畜产品逐渐成为城镇居民餐桌上的新宠，文章重点研究了中国城镇居民牛肉消费的收入阶层异质性和户籍地差异特征，并模拟分析了收入分布变化对不同户籍类型家庭牛肉消费的影响。方法 运用广义双栏模型，基于国家统计局的6省区城镇住户微观调查数据，识别了牛肉消费的影响因素并估计了不同收入阶层的牛肉需求的收入弹性，最后基于收入弹性和收入增长率模拟分析收入分布变化的影响效果。结果 随着我国城镇居民生活水平的提升和畜产品消费结构的升级，未来牛肉需求将会不断扩大；户籍地差异会对居民牛肉消费产生显著影响，户籍制度限制了居民的牛肉消费需求，但收入的增长可弥补部分户籍制度带来的福利差异；缩小收入差距，提升中等收入群体家庭收入的增长模式能够显著增加居民牛肉需求，尤其是提升农民工群体的收入。结论 未来需要继续通过供给侧改革来应对牛肉需求的激增，扩大中等收入群体并重视农民工群体的发展是全面建成小康社会的关键环节。

Abstract:

As China's social and economic development has entered a new era with high-quality growth, the high-quality livestock products represented by beef have gradually become the new favorite on urban residents’ dining table. Based on the micro-survey data of urban households across six provinces sourcing from the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper used the generalized double-hurdle model to study the heterogeneity of income classes and household registration difference of beef consumption and simulated the impact of changes in income distribution on household beef consumption. The results showed that the demand for beef would continue to expand in the future with the economic development in China. The difference in household registration had a significant impact on beef consumption and the household registration system limited the demand for beef consumption. Furthermore, narrowing the income gap and increasing the income of middle-income households and migrant workers could significantly increase beef demand. In the future, it is necessary to meet the surge in beef demand through supply-side structural reform. Expanding middle-income groups and attaching importance to the development of migrant workers is the key link in realizing a moderately prosperous society in all aspects.