中国玉米供需平衡及国际市场可利用性分析

ANALYSIS ON THE BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF CORN MARKET IN CHINA AND THE AVAILABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL MARKET

关键词:  玉米  供需平衡  潜力  进口  国际市场

Key words:  corn  balance of supply and demand market  import  potential  international market

摘要:

目的 当前中国玉米供需形势偏紧，产需缺口有扩大趋势，综合考虑到水土资源短缺的要素制约以及玉米进口来源国集中的贸易风险，加强对国际玉米市场资源可利用性研究，分析世界玉米主产国玉米生产和出口潜力，保障国内玉米供应安全十分必要。方法 文章运用比较分析法，对国内外玉米供需、贸易的历史和最新数据进行比较详实的统计分析；采用FAO—GAEZ模型测算世界玉米主产国的玉米生产潜力。结果 当前中国玉米产不足需，长期看供需格局偏紧将持续，玉米净进口将维持常态化；世界玉米供需格局较为宽松，美国的玉米产量和出口量占世界玉米产量和出口量的份额在逐渐下降，而巴西、阿根廷、乌克兰的份额在逐步上升，贸易格局呈多元化发展；从4个玉米主产国较好的生产与出口潜力看，未来中国利用国际玉米市场资源的空间环境较为有利。结论 提高统筹利用国际国内“两个市场、两种资源”的能力，保障中国玉米供需平衡，要实施玉米进口多元化战略，分散玉米进口风险，引导农业企业“走出去”，加快建立持续、稳定、安全的全球粮食供应体系，同时要立足国内生产保供给，优化玉米产业区域布局，促进国内玉米产业的健康和高质量发展。

Abstract:

At present, the supply and demand of corn market have a tight tendency, since there is an uprising gap between supply and demand. Considering the constraints of domestic land and water resources shortage and risks of the concentration of corn-imported nations, this paper have been composed to the availability of resources in the international corn market, to analyze the corn production and export potential according to the world’s major corn yielded nations, which is necessary to ensure domestic corn supply safety. Through the comparative analysis method, this paper conducted a more detailed statistical analysis of the historic and latest data of domestic and foreign corn supply, demand and trade. Meanwhile, using the FAO-GAEZ model, this paper aimed to measure the corn production potential of the world's major corn planting countries. The results showed that in the long run, the status of supply and demand would continue to be tight, and the net import of corn would maintain normalization. The supply and demand pattern of world corn market was relatively loose, and the trading pattern was diversified. The US corn production and export share in the world and export was gradually declining, while Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine were gradually increasing. From the perspective of production and export potential of the four major corn-producing countries with advantage, the spatial environment in China to utilize the international corn market would be more favorable in the future. It should make full use of "two markets and two resources" at home and abroad to ensure the balance between supply and demand of corn market in China. Besides, it is also available to implement a corn import diversification strategy to diversify corn import risks, guide agricultural enterprises going global and accelerate the establishment of a sustainable, stable and safe global food supply system, while keeping itself on domestic production to ensure supply and optimize corn industrial regional layout to promote the healthy and high-quality development of the domestic corn industry.