湖南省县域经济发展和城镇化水平时空变化研究

STUDY ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGE OF COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND URBANIZATION LEVEL IN HUNAN PROVINCE

关键词:  产业产值  城镇化  变异系数  热点分析  相关性分析

Key words:  industrial output value  urbanization  coefficient of variation  Getis‐Ord Gi*  Pearson correlation coefficient

摘要:

目的 利用湖南省各县级单元15年来三次产业产值和城镇化率数据，通过分析以掌握全省县域经济发展和城镇化水平的时空变化及两者的相关性。方法 文章运用变异系数、热点分析和相关系数等方法，计算各县级单元相关指标，利用ArcGIS10.2对其空间格局进行分析。结果 （1）15年来全省三次产业产值县域间相对差异表现为第三产业最大，第二产业次之，第一产业最小；（2）15年来湖南省二三次产业产值均呈现东部高西部低的特点，全省总体格局变化不大，第一产业则表现为东北部、中部高，西部和南部低的特点；（3）15年来城镇化水平热点主要位于各市辖区和经济发展水平较高的县级市，全省二三产业产值与城镇化水平的相关程度较高，且第二产业与城镇化水平的相关性最强。结论 湖南省经济发展水平和城镇化水平的县域间差异正逐步缩小，正逐步形成以长株潭地区为热点中心，岳阳、常德为次热点中心的工业化阶段的区域空间结构，湖南省可以考虑以长株潭热点区和岳阳、常德次热点区为抓手，通过适当政策倾斜带动冷点区域发展，促进区域经济与城镇化协调发展。

Abstract:

Based on the data of industrial output value and urbanization rate of each county unit in Hunan province in the past 15 years, the spatial and temporal changes of economic development and urbanization level in Hunan province and their correlation were learned by analysis. The research was carried out by means of coefficient of variation, Getis‐Ord Gi* and Pearson correlation coefficient，and analyzed with ArcGIS10.2. The results were indicated as follows. (1)In the past 15 years, the relative differences of the three industrial output value among counties in Hunan province were showed as follows: the tertiary industry > the secondary industry > the primary industry;(2)In the past 15 years, the output value of the second and the third industry in Hunan province were characterized by being hot in the east and cold in the west, while the overall pattern had little change. The primary industry was characterized by the hot spots in the northeast and central part and the cold spots in the west and the south;(3)The hot spots of urbanization level were mainly located in municipal districts and county‐level cities with high economic development level. The correlations between the output values of the second and tertiary industries and urbanization level were relatively higher than that of the primary industry, and the correlation of the second industry was the most significant. In summary, the disparities in economic development level and urbanization level among counties in Hunan province are gradually decreasing. With Changsha‐Zhuzhou‐Xiangtan as the hot spots and Yueyang‐Changde as the sub‐hot spots, the regional spatial structure which is in the industrialization stage, is gradually forming. It can be taken into consideration that the coordinated development of regional economy and urbanization can be promoted through appropriate policies, with Changsha‐Zhuzhou‐Xiangtan hot spot area and Yueyang‐Changde sub‐hot spot area as the focus.