| 摘要: |
| 目的 通过异质性视角定量分析农村外流劳动力的回流意愿，不仅有利于引才回乡政策的精准化，还有助于化解农村“空巢化”“老龄化”等一系列现实问题。方法 文章以农村外流劳动力为研究对象，运用定序Logit回归模型实证检验农村外流劳动力的回流意愿及影响因素，并对结果进行了异质性分析和稳健性检验。结果 当地有房会增加农村外流劳动力的回流意愿；未婚、受教育程度低、累计流动时间短、年龄大和职业不稳定会增加农村外流劳动力的回流意愿；受教育程度的影响主要来源于三、四线城市，年龄和职业的影响主要来源于中、西部地区，收入降低会加速东部地区及一、二线城市的农村外流劳动力回流；农村外流劳动力的回流意愿不存在性别差异。结论 综合评估返乡劳动力，灵活调整土地资源供给、坚持产业兴乡战略定位，为返乡人才提供发展空间、积极转变引才思路，注重打造乡村文明建设，能够提升引才回乡的效率。 |
| 关键词: 农村外流劳动力 回流意愿 异质性 中国流动人口动态监测调查数据 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20210428 |
| 分类号:C971 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社科青年项目“劳动力流动视角下中西部地区乡村振兴的实现机制研究”（18YJCZH243）；湖南省社科基金项目“劳动力回流助推湖南省农民专业合作社发展的动力机制及实现路径研究”（20JD050）；湖南省教育厅一般项目“乡村治理视角下湖南省新乡贤回流的内生动力机制研究”（18C0731）；国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“高校大学生的返乡意愿研究：基于对农村户籍大学生的调查分析”（201910549019）；湖南省应用特色学科“应用经济学”平台（湘教通〔2018〕469号） |
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| Abstract: |
| Through the heterogeneity perspective, quantitative analysis of the intention to return of rural outflow labors is not only conducive to the precision of the policy to attract talents back to the countryside, but also to solve a series of practical problems such as "empty nest" and "aging" in the countryside. This paper took rural outflow labors as the research object, empirical analyzed the intention to return and influence factor of rural outflow labors with the Order-Logit Regression model. The heterogeneity and robustness of the results were analyzed. The results showed that the intention to return of rural outflow labors could be increased by homeownership. Unmarried, low education level, short time of migration, elder and occupational instability had positive effects on the intention to return. The influence of education mainly came from third-tier and fourth-tier cities. The influence of aging and occupation mainly came from Central and Western regions. The decreased of expected income would accelerate the return of rural outflow labors from the Eastern region and first-tier and second-tier cities. There was no gender difference in the intention to return of rural outflow labors. So, government should comprehensively evaluate the returning labors, flexibly adjust the supply of land resources, adhere to the strategic positioning of invigorating the township with industry, provide development space for returning talents, actively change the thinking of attracting talents, and pay attention to the construction of rural civilization to improve the efficiency of attracting talents. |
| Key words: rural outflow labor intention to return heterogeneity analysis China migrants dynamic survey |
