生猪养殖户从众行为存在性及形成机制研究以四川省1 127家养殖户仔猪补栏为例

STUDY ON THE EXISTENCE AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF HERD BEHAVIOR IN HOG FARMERSTAKING 1 127 PIG FARMERS' PIGLETS AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  养殖户  仔猪补栏  从众行为  信息获取性从众  投机性从众

Key words:  farmers  piglet fills  herd behavior  information accessibility  speculative behavior

摘要:

目的 多数养殖户在经营管理上往往注重短期利益，对生猪市场变化的反映是趋同的，容易在价格上涨时“一哄而上”，在价格下跌时“一哄而下”，这种从众行为对生猪供给造成了巨大冲击，不利于生猪生产和猪肉供给的稳定。方法 文章以四川省12个生猪调出大县1 127个生猪养殖户为调查对象，运用二元Logistic回归法，构建了从众行为的检验模型，研究了养殖户仔猪补栏中的从众行为及其形成机制。结果 （1）养殖户仔猪补栏中存在明显的从众行为，即养殖户仔猪补栏决策明显受到其他生猪养殖者生产行为的影响；（2）从众行为服从逻辑追随律和先内后外律。当其他生猪养殖者生产效益越好时，养殖户仔猪补栏的从众行为越明显；生产规模相同的养殖户之间从众行为亦更为明显；（3）信息获取性从众和投机性从众是引起从众行为形成的内在原因；（4）生产规模及养殖技术对从众行为存在重要影响。结论 厘清了养殖户生产中出现“一哄而上，一哄而下”群体性行为的原因，为理解生猪养殖者从众行为及生猪价格形成机制提供新的视角，丰富了农户行为及农产品价格形成机制的研究成果。

Abstract:

Most farmers tend to pursue the immediate short-term benefits in operations and management of the pig farm. It is convergent for their response to the pig price changes in the hog market. It is prone for them to crowd in the hog production market, when hog prices are rising rapidly, and quit the pig production markets when it falls sharply. The herd behavior has had a huge impact on the supply of pigs, which is not conducive to the stability of pig production and pork supply. It has caused instability in meat consumption among the urban and rural residents.The survey was conducted from 1 127 pig farmers in 12 counties in Sichuan province, which were one of the largest counties in China for pig output. This paper used binary logistic regression to construct a test model of herd behavior, and studied the herd behavior and the formation mechanism of farmer's piglet supplementary behavior. It found that: (1) There was an obvious herd behavior in the piglets supplementary behavior of the farmers, that was, the decision of the farmers to fill the piglets was obviously affected by the production behavior of other pig farmers; (2) The herd behavior obeyed the law of follow-up and the law of internal and external. When the production efficiency of other pig farmers was better, the herd behavior of the piglets supplementary behavior was more obvious; the behavior of the farmers with the same production scale was much more obvious; (3) It was the internal causes of herd behavior for information acquisition herding and speculative herding, which led to the formation of herd behavior. In order to obtain decision-making information on piglet supplementation and respond to speculative needs, farmers would imitate and follow the behavior of other farmers' piglet supplementation , and as a result, the herd behavior had occurred; (4) It had an important effects on herd behavior for the scale of pig production and breeding techniques. It is the targets followed and imitated by other farmers for the large-scale farmers and farmers with higher production technology, while they are followers for the small-scale farmers and farmers with lower production technology.The article helps to clarify the reasons for the "crowd in or quit the pig production markets", which is a group behavior in the production of pig farmers. It provides a new perspective for understanding the herd behavior of pig farmers and the price formation mechanism of pigs, and enriches the research results of farmer behavior and price formation mechanism of agricultural products.