中国蔬菜出口贸易的空间关联与溢出效应基于“一带一路”框架的实证

SPATIAL CORRELATION AND SPILLOVER EFFECT OF CHINA′S VEGETABLE EXPORT TRADEAN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON THE “THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE” FRAMEWORK

关键词:  蔬菜出口贸易  一带一路  空间关联  溢出效应  空间杜宾引力模型

Key words:  vegetable export trade  the Belt and Road Initiative  spatial correlation  spillover effect  spatial durbin gravity model

摘要:

目的 蔬菜是中国仅次于粮食的第二大农作物，中国是世界上最大的蔬菜出口国，当前国际贸易环境复杂多变，以蔬菜为首的农产品贸易未来如何，引起各界高度关注。对中国蔬菜出口贸易空间关联与溢出效应进行研究，可以进一步把握蔬菜国际竞争力，为相关农产品贸易政策制定提供参考。方法 文章利用2005—2016年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区蔬菜出口贸易数据，运用全局莫兰指数以及空间杜宾引力模型，从贸易国双方供需、比较优势、贸易成本三方面探究了中国蔬菜出口贸易的影响因素及其空间关联与溢出效应。结果 中国对沿线国家和地区蔬菜出口贸易表现为空间集聚现象；沿线国家和地区的人均GDP以及与中国签订自由贸易协定对蔬菜贸易额具有正向的空间溢出效应，沿线国家蔬菜单产、蔬菜贸易价格对蔬菜贸易额具有负向的空间溢出效应，沿线国家和地区人均蔬菜产量不具有空间溢出效应。中国人均GDP、人均蔬菜产量以及蔬菜单产的直接效应分别为1.062、-8.868、4.391，非空间模型中这些影响因素的弹性估计值均被高估，被高估的比例分别为12.8%、34.8%和11.8%。结论 中国对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区蔬菜出口贸易的空间关联性客观存在，应积极发挥核心地区的贸易溢出效应，同时与蔬菜贸易量较小的“一带一路”沿线国家和地区加强交流与合作，促进蔬菜贸易的区域协调发展。

Abstract:

Vegetable is the second largest crop after grain in China, and China is the world's largest vegetable exporter. The current international trade environment is complex and volatile, and the future of agricultural trade led by vegetables has attracted great attention from all walks of life. The study on the spatial correlation and spillover effects of China′s vegetable export can further grasp the international competitiveness of vegetables and provide reference for the formulation of relevant agricultural trade policies. Based on the data of China's vegetable export to the countries and regions along the " the Belt and Road Initiative" from 2005 to 2016, the study applied the global Moran index and the spatial durbin gravity model, to explore the influencing factors, spatial correlation and spillover effects of China's vegetable export with respect of the supply and demand, comparative advantage and trade cost. The results suggested that (1) China's vegetable export to the countries and regions appeared a spatial agglomeration phenomenon; (2) The per capita GDP of the countries and regions and the signing of free trade agreements with China had positive spatial spillover effects on vegetable export volume; (3) Their vegetable yields and vegetable export′s prices had negative spatial spillover effects on vegetable export volume;(4) Their per capita vegetable outputs had no spatial spillover effects. In addition, we found the direct effects of GDP per capita, vegetable production per capita, and vegetable yield per unit-area of China were 1.062, -8.868, and 4.391, respectively. The elasticity estimates of these factors in the non-spatial model were overestimated by 12.8%, 34.8%, and 11.8%, respectively. We conclude that the spatial correlation of China's vegetable export with the countries and regions along the "the Belt and Road" objectively exists, and the trade spillover effects of the core regions should be actively utilized. At the same time, China should strengthen exchanges and cooperation with countries and regions along the "the Belt and Road" that have a relatively small volume of vegetable trade and promote coordinated regional development of vegetable trade.