农村劳动力转移对化肥面源污染的影响研究以冀鲁豫3省为例

STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF RURAL LABOR TRANSFER ON CHEMICAL FERTILIZER NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTIONA CASE STUDY OF HEBEI-SHANDONG-HENAN PROVINCES

关键词:  农村劳动力转移  化肥面源污染  空间杜宾模型  空间溢出  Moran指数

Key words:  rural labor transfer  chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution  spatial Durbin model  spatial spillovers  Moran's index

摘要:

目的 以冀鲁豫3省45个地市为研究对象，分析农村劳动力转移对化肥面源污染的影响，为实现农村劳动力转移与绿色农业的协调发展提供对策建议。方法 文章选取2004—2016年冀鲁豫3省地市数据，厘清了农村劳动力转移的动态演进轨迹和化肥面源污染的时空分布格局，采用空间杜宾模型分析了农村劳动力转移对化肥面源污染的直接影响和空间溢出。结果 2004—2016年冀鲁豫3省农村劳动力转移率总体表现为提升趋势，但增速有所放缓，区域差异不断增强；化肥面源污染排放强度具有明显的空间集聚特征，从高到低依次为山东、河北、河南，总体排放强度略有下降，表现出由东北向西南转移的演进趋势；农村劳动力转移对化肥面源污染具有正向的直接影响和空间溢出，且间接溢出大于对该市造成的直接影响，农村劳动力转移的快速推进会把化肥面源污染“转嫁”给邻近地市。结论 不同地区应合理引导农村劳动力流动，缓解农村劳动力转移过快带来的污染“转嫁”，统筹协调、协同治理化肥面源污染。

Abstract:

Taking 45 cities of Hebei-Shandong-Henan provinces as research objects, this study aims to shed light on the effects of rural labor transfer on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution, so as to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for promoting balance development between rural labor transfer and green agriculture. Based on the data of city level in Hebei-Shandong-Henan provinces from 2004 to 2016, it clarified dynamic evolution of rural labor transfer and temporal and spatial distribution of chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution. Spatial Durbin model was estimated to analyze spatial spillovers of rural labor transfer on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution. Results showed that the rate of rural labor transfer in Hebei-Shandong-Henan provinces had showed an increasing trend as a whole, whose growth rate had slowed down and spatial heterogeneity was increasing. Emission density of chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution had showed spatial agglomeration, from the highest to the lowest of which was Shandong, Hebei and Henan. Emission density had overall slightly declined and showed a dynamic evolution of transfer from the northeast to the southwest. There were significant direct effects and spatial spillovers of rural labor transfer on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution, where spatial spillovers were bigger than direct effects to the city itself. Rapid development of rural labor transfer of the city itself would remove its fertilizer non-point source pollution to its neighbors. Therefore, it is of vital significance to reasonably guide the flow of rural labor transfer in order to alleviate "pollution transfer" as well as coordinate to control chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution considering different regions as a whole.