全面建成小康社会对农村居民肉类消费的影响基于中国农村微观经济数据的实证研究

THE IMPACT OF COMPLETING BUILDING A MODERATELY PROSPEROUS SOCIETY IN ALL RESPECTS ON THE MEAT CONSUMPTION OF RURAL RESIDENTS *——EMPIRICAL RESEARCH BASED ON CHINESE RURAL MICROECONOMIC DATA

关键词:  农村居民  肉类消费  需求弹性  两阶段模型  零消费

Key words:  rural residents  meat consumption  demand elasticity  two-stage budgeting  zero consumption

摘要:

目的 基于中国农村微观经济数据，分析全面建成小康社会对农村居民肉类消费的影响。方法 文章运用恩格尔模型和考虑“零消费”问题的近乎理想需求系统模型（AIDS）的两阶段模型，对全国8个省份的农户数据进行实证分析。结果 首先，肉类食品的需求收入弹性均为正值，农村居民肉类需求随着收入增长而增加。其次，肉类食品需求收入弹性存在差异，其中，禽肉收入弹性最大，牛羊肉收入弹性最小。再次，不考虑“零消费”问题时，牛羊肉的需求弹性被高估0.12~0.29，猪肉的需求弹性被高估0~0.02。最后，到达全面建成小康社会的标准时，目前低于收入标准的农村居民人均猪肉、禽肉和牛羊肉消费量将分别增加3.42kg、1.86kg和0.57kg，消费结构将进一步优化。结论 全面建成小康社会将促进农村居民人均收入增长，进而扩大人均肉类消费量、优化肉类消费结构；农村家庭户主受教育程度与肉类消费具有正向相关关系。

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects on the meat consumption of rural residents in China based on rural microeconomic data. The household survey data were drawn from the Chinese Rural Microeconomic Data Survey in eight Chinese provinces and region. Income elasticity of demand of different meat was estimated by applying a two-stage budgeting approach of Engel model and Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that considering zero consumption. There were four major results in this paper. Firstly, income elasticities of meats demand were positive, indicating that meats consumption would increase if the income of rural residents reached a higher level. Secondly, there were differences in the income elasticity of demand of meat. Among them, the income elasticity of demand of poultry was the largest, while those of beef and mutton was the least. Thirdly, if the problem of zero consumption was not considered, the results would be overestimated to varying degrees. The income elasticity of demand of beef and mutton would be overestimated by 0.12~0.29, while income elasticity of demand of pork would be overestimated by 0~0.02. Last but not the least, when China achieved the goal of completing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the year of 2020, per capita consumption of pork, poultry, beef and mutton of rural residents whose income were below the target level would be increased by 3.42kg, 1.86kg and 0.57kg, while their consumption structure of meat would be further optimized. In conclusion, completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects will boost the per capita disposable income of rural residents, and then expand per capita meat consumption and optimize the structure of meat consumption. Meanwhile, the education level of household heads is positively correlated with meat consumption.